Last week we introduced you to our newest NFL expert on staff. He is a man who goes by Tickle Me Armo, and he is an absolute god as an bettor. He was a top-3 finisher in the LBS pick ’em challenge last season and is No. 2 in the league this year. The guy knows his stuff. Last week he gave three predictions and hit on 2 of the 3. We expect his picks to continue having as much success.
This week, Tickle Me Armo has provided us with two recommended parlay plays for Week 10, as well as one straight game against the spread. His picks are below.
1. PARLAY: BENGALS -6, OVER 44
The total on Thursday Night Football has gone over 7 out of 9 games so far. That’s 77.78 percent of the games hitting the OVER. Scoring has been +8.3 points over what the projected spread of the games have been. The average score is 51.33 ppg with the lowest score being Pit @ Bal (26-6=32) and the highest score being TB @ Atl (56-14=70). Last week’s Saints/Panthers game was a classic “shoulda woulda coulda” game with the total going over 48, but thanks to interceptions in the red zone, fumbles, dropped passes (mostly by the Panthers) and other turnovers, the game went under. The Saints won 28-10, but the Panthers couldn’t score and it wasn’t because of the Saints’ killer defense…it was stupid passes by Cam to rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin, instead of spreading the ball out to other offensive weapons or running it himself.
The Browns’ 3 road game totals this season are averaging 48.00 ppg while the Bengals’ 5 home game totals are averaging 51.20 ppg. The Browns are a horrible 1-8 SU (Straight Up) in their last 9 games on the road with an average MOV (Margin Of Victory) of -10 ppg. The combined points for those games is averaging 45.11 ppg. The Cincinnati Bengals are 12-0-1 in their last 13 home games dating back to last season with a MOV of +14.92 ppg. The combined points of those games are averaging 51.0 ppg.
I expect the two teams to come out scoring in this game. Brian Hoyer’s starting QB status is riding on this game and if they don’t show up offensively and try to score, then they are screwed. Even without AJ Green at full health, I expect the other guys to pick up the tab like they have been doing in the previous games. Mohamed Sanu will be the #1 target throughout the game with AJ Green being the decoy getting double teamed if he is in the game. With Giovanni Bernard out, don’t expect the Bengals to do too much running with Jeremy Hill. Andy Dalton is mobile enough that he can run for 1st downs himself. He will be throwing the ball all over the field. A lot of screen passes to the WR’s/RB’s and a few dump offs to TE Jermaine Gresham when it’s 2nd or 3rd and short.
Prediction: Bengals 31-21
2. PARLAY: BRONCOS -11, OVER 49
Does anybody really expect the Broncos to lose back-to-back games? Child please … especially to the Raiders? This is what will happen in this game.
This is one of those games that everybody and their mom wants to put money on. It also helps get the Broncos players some sort of ridiculous stats that helps them get the additional bonuses from their contracts towards the end of the year. In the last three years the Broncos are 6-1 after a loss, with them averaging 36.43 ppg and the combined score averaging 57.00 ppg in those 7 games. We all know that Peyton can and will run this offense and throw all over the field for TDs. Let’s just hope that they score at least 45 ppoints themselves so that the over isn’t in jeopardy. This game will be a major blowout. Hopefully a few garbage INTs, pick-sixes and fumble recoveries help the scoring become a lot easier for both teams. Derek Carr has to throw the ball in order for the Raiders to get any offense. If he doesn’t get at least 2 TD’s, then the Raiders will bring in Matt “Pick 6” Schaub…his name just gives it all away.
Prediction: Broncos 45-14
3. CARDINALS -7
The Cardinals are an overall great team with a great mixture of young and talented players as well as veterans on offense, defense and special teams. Combine that with Bruce Arians, who has done a great job as head coach.
The Cardinals are 17-7 (8-4 at home) ATS and 17-17 (10-2 at home) SU in their last 24 games. Carson Palmer should be able to get the ball down the field to either Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd or John Brown. Andre Ellington is one of their best receivers and he’s their starting RB. It should be a close game for a while and then the Cardinals are going to start attacking the Rams’ depleted defense with accurate throws by Carson. I expect the Rams to have heart and put up some points, but lezzzzbehonest, they don’t have the firepower that the Cardinals have.
Last week’s win on the road against the San Francisco 49ers was a big win for them, but I just see this as a letdown game for the Rams since they already got the big win during their current 3-game road trip. The Rams have NOT won back-to-back road division games since Weeks 4 and 5 of the 2004 season. So you have the great offense, defense, special teams of the Cardinals — who are on fire and at home — against the Rams, who have injuries all over the field, a backup QB, a backup RB and a garbage road record in division play and you get a total butt whoopin’ by the Cardinals.
PREDICTION: CARDINALS 35-17
