Del needed to bounce back in a bad way in Week 6, and that is exactly what he did. Following a disappointing Week 5 and a very poor stretch with locks of the week, Del managed to nail his top pick and dominate the spread with a 9-4 showing.
As always, there was some luck involved. But Del is also starting to feel more confident about his picks as we separate the pretenders from the contenders. The Colts getting the back-door cover against the Patriots in a game that didn’t feel all that close was reminiscent of Week 1 when the Steelers did the same, but we can’t dwell. Let’s look for another 9-4 week or better.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
The one line that hopped off the sheet was the Falcons laying 3.5 on the road against the Titans. While 3.5 always gives you pause in case the game comes down to a field goal, this number feels way too short. Atlanta has had 10 days to rest after being upset by a Saints team that almost always plays well at home in primetime games. But did we forget the Falcons were undefeated heading into that game? The Titans, on the other hand, have not won since Marcus Mariota’s amazing debut in a blowout Week 1 win over the Bucs. Tennessee is coming off a brutal 38-10 loss at home to a Dolphins team that was struggling, and Mariota may not even play with a knee injury. This feels like stealing.
The other team Del briefly considered as a lock is San Diego. The Chargers aren’t nearly as bad as their 2-4 record, and that showed on the road against the Packers last week. Philip Rivers brought the game down to the wire and San Diego’s defense did not get dominated by Aaron Rodgers. While the Raiders have lost a ton of close games in recent weeks and are coming off a bye, they just don’t seem good enough yet to hang with the Chargers on the road. My opinion would change slightly if Keenan Allen (hip injury) is unable to go, as he caught a ridiculous 14 passes against Green Bay before leaving with an injury early in the second half. If Allen plays, this might change to a lock for Del.
Some other notes: The Seahawks desperately need a win tonight to get their season back on track, and the 49ers would love to win back-to-back games coming off a good performance against Baltimore. I think both teams will play with urgency, and I simply trust Seattle’s talent level more.
It doesn’t look like Ben Roethlisberger will be ready to return for the Steelers, and Michael Vick is also injured. Landry Jones looked great in relief against the Cardinals, but can he do it again on the road in one of the toughest places to play against a defense that has been able to watch film on him? I think the Chiefs pull the upset.
The Jets defense has been outstanding, but I wouldn’t be stunned if the Patriots blew them out. New England is virtually unstoppable at home. I’m taking the Jets because that’s a lot of points for a 4-1 team with their defense, but I might regret it.
