While a 7-7 record against the spread in Week 7 can’t exactly be labeled a disaster, Del is still looking to string together a couple of big weeks to really get things going. The Falcons were a killer with their disappointing effort against the Titans, and Del ended up losing his only lock thanks to a 3-point Atlanta win with a 3.5-point spread.
Ouch.
We’re looking to regain some of the magic from the start of the year with locks of the week, and Del intends to do just that over the second half of the season. Week 8 is a great time to start, and we’re kicking it off early this week with a confident lean on the Thursday night game.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
The Dolphins have looked like a completely different team under interim head coach Dan Campbell, but their outstanding play over the last two weeks (which they probably can’t sustain) has kept the line for their game against New England a bit low. The Patriots would have covered against the Jets last weekend if not for a late-game field goal, and does anyone think Miami is as good as New York? The Jets were a 9-point underdog against the Pats, so it makes no sense for the Dolphins to be a point better. This seems like an overreaction from the oddsmakers, and Del is banking on Tom Brady cruising to an easy win.
I don’t know how I feel about laying two big numbers for locks this week, but did anyone see the Rams’ defense against the Browns last week? The unit was downright dominant, and now it gets another home game against a 49ers offense that is even worse. San Francisco is scoring just 14.7 points per game, which ranks dead last in the NFL and is more than three points worse than the team above them. That team happens to be the Rams, who rank 31st in the NFL with just 18.0 points per game. However, St. Louis has gotten a full work load from Todd Gurley in just three games, and he has looked shot out of a cannon. The rookie is averaging a whopping 6.0 yards per carry. The 49ers are allowing 113.3 yards per game on the ground. How can they keep this close? Del doesn’t think they can.
Some other notes: It’s not that I don’t respect what the 6-0 Bengals have accomplished, but Pittsburgh’s offense should be rejuvenated with Ben Roethlisberger set to return. It’s always tough to win divisional games on the road, and this seems like a good spot for Cincinnati to lose its first game. I’ll take the points, which I don’t think the Steelers will need.
Green Bay vs. Denver should be the game of the week, and I think the Broncos come out on top thanks to their outstanding defense. Peyton Manning and his noodle arm should be able to do just enough at home if Denver’s defense continues to play the way it has.
The Colts have to put it together at some point, right? Maybe not, but seven points seems like a lot for a primetime game with a team that has potential. I’ll give them one last chance to preserve some dignity.
