The FIFA World Cup is upon us, and while many teams will be dreaming, only a handful have a realistic chance of claiming the crown. They tend to be traditional powerhouses who have been to the later stages recently and expect to do so again.
We’ll look at a bit of a wider list — anything can happen in the knockout stages, after all, and there are a number of teams who do have talent despite not being among the frontrunners. Here are 12 teams most likely to take home the World Cup in 2018.
12) Mexico
Making the last 16 has never really been a problem for Mexico, and they stand a decent chance of getting that far again in 2018. The question is whether they can go further; they’ve been knocked out at that stage in the last six World Cups. It’s possible, though like some other teams, they haven’t exactly been convincing in their run through qualifying. It shouldn’t be a question whether they can score enough given they can claim Javier Hernandez and Carlos Vela, among others, but it’s been an issue. They probably also lack the defensive steadiness to halt the top attacks in their tracks. There’s talent here, though.
11) Croatia
It’s hard to know what to make of Croatia, who boast one of the world’s most gifted players in Luka Modric. There’s talent around him, too, but they’re a team prone to losing to lesser opponents in international tournaments. Modric is a gifted midfielder who can create like few others, while Ivan Rakitic is an accomplished midfielder and Ivan Perisic is a quality winger. Up front, Mario Mandzukic has long been regarded as a quality scorer. It remains to be seen whether it all comes together, or whether they can keep things sufficiently tight defensively.
10) Colombia
Colombia reached the quarterfinals in Brazil on the back of a dazzling show from James Rodriguez, who is no longer the relative unknown he was then. He can take them far, but he will have some help thanks to a talented defense and some good players in midfield, including Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado. The question will be whether they can score enough. Rodriguez will have to be at his creative best and striker Radamel Falcao must be firing if Colombia want to be a factor at the latter stages, but it’s doable.
9) Uruguay
The Uruguayans are blessed with a terrific spine, and have a chance to go far as long as Luis Suarez doesn’t bite anyone this time around. Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez are excellent at the back, and there is no doubting the quality of Suarez and Edinson Cavani up front. It’s everything in-between that will make it tough for Uruguay to win. They should clear the group stage with ease, but the midfield must step up, particularly 20-year-old prodigy Rodrigo Betancur. If the pieces fall in the right places, they could make a real run at it.
8) England
England hasn’t won a World Cup since 1966, and that probably won’t change in 2018. There’s more talent in the squad than there was in 2014, which alone counts for something. Harry Kane is one of the world’s elite pure scorers, and Raheem Sterling’s game has taken numerous steps forward in the past calendar year at Manchester City. Beyond that, it’s up to young players to step up, with midfielder Dele Alli and defender John Stones in particular needing to play beyond their years. It’s unrealistic to expect the English to win, but they could surprise, and anything can happen in the knockout stages.
7) Belgium
Belgium remains the poster child for the fact that talent doesn’t guarantee you anything if you’re top-heavy and lacking in coherent strategy. You can rattle off a half dozen star players in their ranks — Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Toby Alderweireld, Vincent Kompany, and Jan Vertonghen are all excellent at what they do. In terms of pure talent, they can match up with virtually anyone, but they don’t have the depth of some of their counterparts and have fallen flat in nearly every international tournament they played in under previous manager Marc Wilmots. Roberto Martinez is more experienced, but is still fighting the same problems, and leaving midfield enforcer Radja Nainggolan out of the squad entirely could easily backfire. The talent is there to go far. Can it gel?
6) Portugal
Similarly to Argentina, Portugal can win the World Cup because they have Cristiano Ronaldo. While his best days are probably behind him, the Real Madrid superstar can still drag a team over the line with sheer talent and determination. He does have some talent around him — the likes of Bernardo Silva and Joao Moutinho are good players, and few nations can claim a more experienced defender than Pepe. But the reality is, despite winning Euro 2016, the Portuguese had a lot of close calls and escapes in that tournament, and this will be even harder. That said, they did win it, and they have Ronaldo, so discount them at your own risk.
5) Argentina
Argentina has a chance to win the World Cup for one simple reason: they have Lionel Messi and everyone else does not. If only he had enough talent around him to make it seem more realistic. Messi is so good that he can win any game by himself, able to put together a moment of brilliance against any side in the world out of seemingly nothing. It’s sometimes enough to mask the fact that Argentina’s defense is lacking in quality and Messi’s support in attack isn’t quite as good as it was four years ago, despite the undeniable talent of Angel Di Maria and Sergio Aguero. The Argentine gameplan too often remains “hope Messi does something good.” That’s probably not enough, though the fact that they have a real chance is a testament to how good he is.
4) France
Runners-up at Euro 2016, the French golden generation is well and truly coming of age just in time for 2018. Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann lead the line, Paul Pogba has the talent to take control of any game, and they have a formidable center back pairing in Raphael Varane and Samuel Umtiti. Add in one of the world’s better goalkeepers in Hugo Lloris and the depth to make an impact in any game and you have one of the four clear favorites in the competition.
What could hold them back? They have often looked less than the sum of their parts, and struggled at times in qualifying. One cannot simply rely on moments of individual magic to win a World Cup, and at times, France has done too much of that.
3) Brazil
It’s a simple fact that Brazil’s 2014 World Cup squad simply wasn’t as good as those of their rivals, and they were boosted by the backing of their home country to a semifinal that was always going to be a stretch for them to win. They’re much better this time. Spearheaded by a now-healthy Neymar, goals won’t be a problem, as Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino wait behind him in case he can’t get the job done. Creative midfielders Coutinho and Paulinho can score, Casemiro and Fernandinho can handle defensive duties in midfield, and they’re experienced at the back with Thiago Silva and Marcelo. There’s talent across the board here, enough so that they can realistically expect to contend for the country’s first World Cup in 16 years — a drought that is, for this nation, hard to fathom.
2) Spain
Under new manager Julen Lopetegui, the Spanish squad looks revitalized, and they’ve re-established themselves as a potential favorite after their disappointing showing at 2014’s tournament, as well as underwhelming at Euro 2016. The Sergio Ramos-Gerard Pique defensive pairing remains an immense one, and they have more top-quality midfielders than they will know what to do with, led by the iconic Andres Iniesta. One major question Lopetegui will have to answer is who will finish off the attacks. Diego Costa is by the far the most established forward in the squad, though he has not meshed perfectly with the team’s style of play in the past.
1) Germany
One would be remiss to have the defending champions ranked anywhere but the top. Their depth is such that Mario Gotze, the man who scored the extra time goal to win them the World Cup in 2014, won’t even be making the trip to Russia this year. They also won last year’s Confederations Cup with essentially their B-team.
The German squad has immense experience, and manager Joachim Low will be able to turn to his experienced hands. Toni Kroos remains one of the world’s best midfielders, while Thomas Muller and Mesut Ozil have immense experience at this level in spite of less-than-stellar club seasons. As an added boost, goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, who missed most of Bayern Munich’s club season with injury, is fit and ready to go. It’s not as if they needed more help, but they have it.
