I have to say, taking a look at the schedule of games today, the amount of high seeds playing — which should in turn translate to high-quality games — is astounding. At 4:10pm PT, #4 Southern Illinois is scheduled to tip-off against #1 Kansas from San Jose. Shortly thereafter, #2 Memphis is scheduled to tip against #3 Texas A&M in San Antonio. After those games are completed, #2 UCLA will face #3 Pitt (in San Jose) and #5 Tennessee will take on #1 Ohio State (in San Antonio).
Is it just me, or is this way too anti-climactic? You have four days worth of stellar wall-to-wall action, then a gigantic lull for three days after. That’s like giving a gambler 10 bucks and telling him to have fun — or stealing the needle from a heroin addict. How can you possibly expect to pump me full of this “March Madness” disease and then strip me of it for THREE whole days?
Anyways, CBS got their wish; UCLA will finally match-up against Pitt in the tourney. It’s mentor vs. mentee, best friends against each other, Howland vs. Dixon, however you want to slice it, there is an emotional appeal in this one (if you want more, Pitt Blather has compiled most of these articles). As Howland said, they invest a lot of money into the tournament, they’re going to do what they can to heighten the emotional excitement behind every game. And I have to admit that it worked. This is by far the most exciting game on the slate — tell me which other game has any sort of emotional draw to it? You can’t.
Here’s what to expect: A very low-scoring game with tons of defense. UCLA will play their typical man-to-man, while Pitt will do the same, spare an occasional zone look. Pitt will be wise to throw the ball down-low, forcing UCLA’s far-less-talented big men to get into foul trouble. If there ever was a weakness for UCLA, it’s inside.
That’s why tonight will be a big test for Lorenzo Mata and Luc Richard Mbah-A-Moute as they will need to step up their defensive efforts against Pitt’s star player, 7’0″ center Aaron Gray. In addition to Gray, UCLA will see a lot of Levon Kendall, a 6’10” forward with more rebounding than scoring skills. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dixon go with a big lineup against the Bruins. Think about it — after Mata and Luc, the only other big UCLA rotates is Aboya — that’s only 15 fouls to give. That’s where things will get shaky.
UCLA will play a very slow and controlled game — like always. They have a much better shooting advantage over Pitt — Afflalo and Collison are much more lethal outside than Ramon, Fields, or Graves. Additionally, the Bruins have a huge advantage at the FT line. Gray, who is leading Pitt with nearly 5 FT attempts per game, made only 55% during the regular season. Conversely for UCLA, the three leaders in free throw attempts, Afflalo, Shipp, and Collison, all average better than 77%. Think that won’t be a HUGE difference maker down the stretch? Think again.
If Levance Fields chokes at the line against UCLA the way he did against VCU, Pitt will be toast.
My pick is pretty obvious — UCLA by around five points, 63-58 or so, with free throws being key. It also won’t hurt having 10,000 fans or so making the drive up from So. Cal. (wish I were one of ’em!)
