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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

NFL picks Week 6 against the spread – Del’s selections

Del was hoping to keep the momentum from Week 4 going last week, but it turned out to be short-lived. Week 5 did not go that well and the top three selections struggled once again. That doesn’t mean we’re giving up hope, as there’s plenty of football left to be played. The goal is to get the top three selections above the 50% mark, and that goal has not been adjusted.

Unlike last week, there are a number of large spreads and mismatches in Week 6. Most notably, the Denver Broncos are a record-setting 27-point favorite over the Jacksonville Jaguars. We’ll talk about that game and the top three selections after the chart. As always, be sure to check back later in the week for Doc Brown’s picks.

NFL PICKS WEEK 5
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

NFL-Picks-Week-6

For my first lock of the week, I like the Lions laying 2.5 on the road against the Browns. Because of an injury to backup quarterback Brian Hoyer, the Browns have been forced to go back to starting quarterback Brandon Weeden. Yes, that is accurate despite how confusing it may sound. Many feel Weeden actually presents a downgrade for Cleveland’s offense, and I tend to agree. A lot of this game will hinge on the health of Calvin Johnson, as the Lions clearly struggled last week without him. But whether Megatron plays or not, I feel the Lions are a superior team. They should be able to win by a field goal, even on the road.

Another line to keep an eye on is the Saints getting 2.5 points against the Patriots. Bill Belichick and company seem to burn me every time I pick against them, so take this pick with a grain of salt. That being said, New Orleans is more loaded with weapons than ever. Jimmy Graham looks unstoppable. Even if the Patriots find a way to slow him down, Drew Brees can beat them with Darren Sproles, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas and others. New England’s defense has looked vastly improved, but the loss of Vince Wilfork hurts. Rob Gronkowski could return and should give Tom Brady an immediate boost. That doesn’t mean the Patriots can score enough to keep up with the Saints.

And finally, I’m going with the Cowboys laying 5.5 at home against the Redskins. Unless Washington comes out of the bye week looking like an entirely different team, they probably aren’t going to be very good this year. If not for yet another late-game interception against Denver, Dallas may have handed the Broncos their first loss of the season. The Redskins’ defense looked horrendous before the bye and it now has to face a Cowboys team that just put up 48 points. Can Robert Griffin III manufacture enough points in another potential shootout? I have many doubts about that.

As for Denver being a 27-point favorite against Jacksonville, it’s hard to not take 27 points no matter what the gap is between the teams. The Broncos will dominate, but do they even need to run the score up that high? Peyton Manning and some of the other starters could be riding the bench at some point in the third quarter. I wouldn’t bet on Jacksonville, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost by 17 to 24 points.



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