We have been waiting years for this fight to happen, and at every step of the way I have believed that Floyd Mayweather Jr. would beat Manny Pacquiao. There is one simple reason I feel that way: Floyd is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world.
Mayweather is one of the best defensive fighters in the history of boxing. The man is skilled at avoiding opponents, making them miss, and dancing around while still throwing punches and landing combinations. His speed is incredible, as is his ability to dodge all punches. Better yet, he is mentally strong in the ring and rarely gets goaded into a slugfest; he is in control of his fate.
Pacquiao is one of the best offensive fighters in the 147-pound division (and previously at 130 pounds) that we have seen in a long time. He is incredibly fast and a relentless attacker. Most opponents simply cannot keep up with his speed and energy and get flustered as he blisters them with flurries.
This is a contrast in styles as the two fighters’ have opposing strengths. Just like I have for every one of his fights, I’m picking Floyd to win. This one I think he’ll win by split decision in a close fight.
Pacquiao is going to bring the pressure and pain to Floyd. He is going to out-throw Mayweather by easily over 100 punches, possibly 200 punches. He is going to out-land Floyd as well. But he’s going to land at a lower percentage than Floyd, because that’s how all of Mayweather’s fights go. Some judges will view Pacquiao’s activity as a plus and give him the nod in rounds, while others will see Floyd avoiding and dodging the punches and will give him more credit. That will make it a close call on the scorecards.
I think two judges are going to give it to Floyd: 115-113 on one, 116-112 on another, and a third might give it to Pacquiao 115-113. That would result in a split decision win for Floyd.
When evaluating the fight, remember that this is a home fight for Floyd; the MGM is his hotel (he has fought there exclusively since beating Oscar De La Hoya there in 2007). Las Vegas is his city and where he lives. The hotel, athletic commission, city and state are all invested in Floyd because he brings so much business and money to the area. He walks into the ring already ahead on the scorecards by three rounds just because of who he is, what he means to Nevada, and because of his reputation. He receives all benefits of the doubt.
This is a road fight for Pacquiao. He is the visitor here. He cannot expect to win a decision from the judges even if he dominates the fight. He has to win by a knockout. I give Manny about a 20 percent chance of becoming the first person to knock down/out Floyd.
The other beautiful part about a split decision outcome is that it would preserve Floyd’s undefeated record while creating enough controversy for a second fight. Mayweather only has one more fight left on his contract with Showtime after this, so a rematch with Pacquiao would make sense to end his career with the network.
