Analytics have become popularized in football, with broadcasts frequently mentioning what the “analytics” say a team should do in a situation. Nick Saban thinks those calculations are flawed.
Saban joined “The Pat McAfee Show” on Thursday for his weekly appearance. The Alabama Crimson Tide head coach was asked by McAfee what he and Bill Belichick talk about when they’re together. Saban said football philosphy is something the old friends and former coworkers talk about, and he brought up analytics as an example.
Saban then brought up fourth downs as an example of something they talk about.
“A lot of people are going for it on fourth down now. And they talk about ‘analytics’ saying you got this percentage chance to make it on this down-and-distance on fourth down, so it’s worth going for it. But what the analytics really don’t tell you is what happens when you don’t make it. Those consequences are pretty significant sometimes too, especially if you don’t take field position into account,” Saban said.
"A lot of people are going for it on fourth down now and they talk about analytics saying you got this percentage chance to make it..
What the analytics don't tell you is what happens when you don't make it and those consequences are pretty significant"
Coach Saban #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/y0MHdDOUXY
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 2, 2023
Saban believes that the stats shown on TV paint an incomplete picture. And he’s completely right.
Saban also brought up another very important factor that is ignored by the analytics.
“One other thing about fourth down … it depends on your cats too,” Saban said, referring to the talent level of the players on your team.
The better the players you have, the more inclined you might be to go for it. The worse players you have, the more hesitant you might be to go for it, regardless of what the numbers tell you.
"It depends on your cats too and the analytics don't tell you what cat is doing it"
Coach Saban #PMSLive https://t.co/fckBPd9s9H pic.twitter.com/w5USYo6U8F
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 2, 2023
Bottom line, though the numbers can be helpful, if you’re just blindly following them, you’re not doing a good job as a coach.
