Eight biggest storylines of the World Cup knockout stages

We now know the exact roadmap to the World Cup Final. Sixteen teams have advanced from the Group Stage and can now tell themselves they’re four wins away from immortality. Those wins won’t come easy, though, especially for some teams who have received an unforgiving draw or are trying to mask obvious deficiencies that were exposed during their first three matches.

What are some things worth watching as we move into the knockouts? Here are eight major storylines as we embark on the knockout rounds.

1) A surprise winner looks much more likely

Before the tournament started, the general consensus was that there were four big favorites to win the World Cup. Of those four, Brazil and France have difficult routes through the knockout stages, Spain are in decent shape, and Germany didn’t even escape the group stages. France and Brazil could meet in the semi-finals, while Spain can’t play one of their highly-rated foes until a potential final.

That could all make it easier to get a surprise outfit. At least one non-favorite will be in the semifinal, as Spain is the only member of that entrenched elite on their side of the bracket. We’ll get to more of the ramifications of that later, but suffice to say, we’re one insipid Spain performance away from an unlikely country contesting the World Cup Final, even if the other side of the bracket fails to descend into chaos.

2) Spain must love where they’re at

They have VAR to thank for it, but Spain won’t be complaining about the draw they’ve received. Sure, Croatia will be very tough opposition assuming that game comes to pass, but the Spanish should be considered the favorites in every game they play up to the finals. They’re simply the deepest and most talented squad on their side of the bracket. Compare that to Portugal’s gauntlet — Uruguay, then France or Argentina, then possibly Brazil or Belgium in the semifinal — and it’s easy to see why that controversial penalty so aggravated the Portuguese. This could have been theirs.

3) If it happens, Brazil-Belgium might be the match of the tournament

Few teams acquitted themselves better in the group stage than Belgium, who blasted through their group and beat England in the finale to earn the top spot. In doing so, they set up a date with Japan, one of the worst remaining teams in the competition and one they should easily get past. Brazil has Mexico, which looked a lot more intriguing before Sweden took El Tri apart in the group stage finale.

It’s a good bet that both Brazil and Belgium will win, setting up an incredible quarterfinal match that could well determine who plays for the whole thing. Brazil looked unconvincing at times during the group stage, but they have too much talent to ignore, while Belgium’s attacking firepower could pose problems for any opponent. Expect a pulsating encounter between two teams who first and foremost want to score goals.

4) Several teams won by losing

Nobody will admit it, but several teams are probably happy they didn’t win their group. Russia, for instance, ended up on an easier side of the bracket than group winners Uruguay, though they probably won’t get past Spain. Denmark is also unlikely to mind being spared the other side of the bracket, through they’ll be underdogs against Croatia.

The two biggest beneficiaries of their second-place finishes? Switzerland is one, with Sweden and the Colombia-England winner in their path to a semifinal instead of Mexico and Belgium. England might be the biggest winner, so much so that there was speculation that neither they nor Belgium particularly wanted to win their matchup and subsequently the group. England won by losing, with Colombia, then Switzerland or Sweden in their way. Had they won their group, a quarterfinal matchup against Brazil likely would have beckoned instead.

5) One side of the bracket is particularly heavy on star power

No disrespect to Spain, but they aren’t quite as star-driven as some of the other top teams in the World Cup. Oh, sure, they have plenty of stars, but they lack that Messi or Ronaldo figure who grabs the spotlight. The same goes for Spain’s entire side of the bracket — you can make a case for Colombia’s James Rodriguez, but ultimately, most of the star power lies on the other wise of the bracket, where Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Neymar all sit. So, too, do Paul Pogba of France and Luis Suarez of Uruguay. If you want the big names, that’s the side of the bracket you’ll want to be tuning into.

6) France’s road to the final is a brutal one

Considered a pre-tournament favorite, France didn’t really play well in the group stages, which quieted a lot of the hype. Their odds have decreased even more with the single toughest draw of any leading contender. While Argentina obviously showed that they have countless issues, they still have Messi on their side. If France escape that match, they’ll face either Suarez’s Uruguay or Ronaldo’s Portugal in the quarterfinals, and then a possible date with Brazil looms in the semis. Yes, if all goes right — or wrong — France could have to get past Messi, Ronaldo, and Neymar to reach the final. That’s an unenviable task.

7) Messi vs. Ronaldo?

Of course, we can’t ignore the possibility of Argentina pulling it together to defeat France and Portugal taking out Uruguay. That would set up a dream for both fans and television executives alike: a Messi-Ronaldo matchup at the World Cup. Ronaldo would be the favorite, as Portugal have looked sturdier than Argentina, and quite frankly, Ronaldo seems to be in much better form right now. The narratives would be strong with this one, and it would certainly be a cap in someone’s feather in the endless debate over who’s better, but it would also be a huge spectacle between two hugely-motivated players. Neither side is a favorite to win the World Cup, but it would be one of the most intriguing games of the competition.

8) If Croatia topples Spain, all bets are off

We have already said that Spain has to love their draw at this point and are clearly a favorite to make it all the way to the final on the back of it. But what if they don’t? Croatia, who systematically dismantled Messi and Argentina in the group stages, would appear, on paper, to be the team with the best chance of taking Spain out. Make no mistake, Spain’s jaunt through Group B was anything but convincing, with their only victory a 1-0 nailbiter against Iran, and they only narrowly salvaged a draw against Morocco. If they turn in another mediocre performance, someone would take advantage and throw this side of the bracket into chaos.

At that point, Croatia and the winner of Colombia-England are likely to be your new favorites in terms of making the finals. That would be quite the story for any of those countries, who certainly dreamed of such a possibility, but might not have dared to realistically think about it — until now.