The first wave of NFL byes is upon us, but unfortunately for Del there are no bye weeks for those of us who pick the games. Despite an agonizing effort week in and week out, Del just cannot seem to get on the right side of the spread. With a 70 percent success rate straight up, determining which team will win each game has not been a problem for Del. Figuring out how close each game will be has been tougher than a Harvard biochemistry exam.
As usual, the good news it that the top-3 continue to be successful each week. Obviously those are the picks we feel most confident in, so if any are going to hit amidst a horrible stretch of weeks it might as well be those ones. I found the spreads for Week 5 to be tougher than any week thus far, so maybe that will somehow translate into a solid group of picks since the first four weeks have been busts. Here are Del’s Week 5 NFL Picks, with top-3 analysis after the chart.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
As you can see, we have a lot of not-so-good teams squaring off this week which has lead to some tricky spreads. One game I felt good about right fro the start is the Bengals getting 2.5 points against the Jaguars, simply because I believe Cincinnati is the better team and should win straight up. Of the two rookie starting quarterbacks, Andy Dalton has looked slightly better than Blane Gabbert. The Jaguars defense has looked average and their offense has been stale. Cedric Benson avoided suspension for another week so that should help the Bengals close the game out if they can get an early lead.
Next, we head to New Meadowlands Stadium where the Giants are at -10 hosting the Seahawks. Seattle has kept games close at home, but on the road they have been horrendous. The Giants, on the other hand, are looking better each week and were able to win last weekend on the road despite a monster performance from Beanie Wells. I don’t usually like to lock in a team with this big a spread, but I would be surprised if the G-Men didn’t pull out a two-touchdown victory in this one.
Finally, we stay aboard the Lions bandwagon for yet another week. After their explosive comeback victory against the Cowboys last week, I’m sold. Detroit has a refuse to lose mentality this year and it has shown week in and week out. At home, their offense is particularly dangerous. Nobody seems to be able to stop Megatron so I doubt the Bears will be any different. Look for the Lions to jump out to an early lead and hold on to it in front of an electric Monday night crowd.
