Luckily for NFL fans we get our fix earlier than usual this week — there is a game on Thursday night (a reminder to get your picks in earlier than usual). We’d all be watching on Thursday night regardless of the teams, but it’s hard not to get excited about Baltimore visiting Atlanta. They are two of the best teams in the NFL, both 6-2, and they each have an excellent shot at the Super Bowl. Picking a winner there wasn’t easy, nor is it easy with all the other games.
The Doc is now picking at 55.4% against the spread this year and 59% straight up. The best news of all is what’s going on with the Top 3. The Doc has nailed 74% of his Top 3 this year making the model of going 2-1 each week to earn money an absolute gem. Here are The Doc’s Top 3 for week 10:
I’m taking Tampa Bay and laying the 6.5. Make sure you get them giving 6.5 and not 7, as a touchdown win would result in a push instead of a win. This really is a bet against the inept Carolina Panthers and Jimmy Clausen who has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. Carolina just placed Jeff Otah and Dan Connor on injured reserve, and their top two running backs are missing. The Bucs meanwhile seem to play well against inferior opponents. I absolutely love this matchup.
The Doc is going with the Rams +6 against the Niners. When I first saw the line I honestly thought it was a mistake. I still am waiting for someone to explain to me how the 49ers are favored by six points against anyone. Even if San Francisco were up 21-0 in the fourth quarter against the Bills and favored by six I still wouldn’t bet on them. St. Louis’ defense is very solid and I have a lot of faith in Sam Bradford to get at least two touchdowns on the board. That’s enough to ensure they cover. If the Rams don’t cover this line, I don’t know anything about football.
I also like the Chiefs -1 at the Broncos. I never thought Denver was as bad as they looked giving up 59 to the Raiders, but then they went out and lost to the Niners the following weekend. They’re not a bad team, but it will take more than that to beat Kansas City. The Chiefs let me down losing to the Raiders but they played well on a sloppy field and had the lead several times. Their pass defense can give Kyle Orton problems and from there, Denver’s ground game will struggle. I like the Chiefs in a near pick ’em game. Analysis on all the games to follow.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
Ravens and Falcons was tough to call and I actually did something I hardly ever do — flip sides. I went Atlanta originally but changed to Baltimore. I like the Falcons but I think Baltimore is a better overall team that shows up more consistently. The unaccounted factor is how much Atlanta will be pumped up playing at home on NFL Network.
The Bills have been close the last several weeks but bad teams find ways to lose games. They’ve lost each of their last three games by exactly three points but I think they finally get a win here. If Matthew Stafford were healthy and playing, there’s no way I’d pick Buffalo. His replacement, Drew Stanton, is mistake-prone and unlikely to lead several scoring drives. Buffalo’s offense may struggle against Detroit’s potent pass rush, but they are good enough to win this one.
Cleveland has been playing well while the Jets have been looking vulnerable. These teams are familiar with each other based on recent trades and recent coaches. I like the Jets to prevail, but the Browns proved to everyone that they are no pushover with back-to-back wins over the Saints and Patriots. Colt McCoy has also shown he is a much better caretaker of the football than I ever expected him to be.
I haven’t had any faith in the Bengals the entire year and they’ve given me no reason to change my opinion. It’s been the same pattern for them week after week: fall behind early then come back with the passing game. Yeah they’ve made things exciting, but the reason they keep falling behind is because they’re bad. The Colts should roll.
Tennessee-Miami is one of the toughest games for me to call. I like the Dolphins’ defense but their offense hasn’t been productive. Starting Chad Pennington isn’t an awful decision, and it should ease the pressure on the defense to win the game. The Titans are a good team and coming off the bye so they should be well prepared for the game. Vince Young’s health isn’t a major concern to me either as I’m guessing he’ll play, but the Titans will put up a fight regardless of their starting quarterback.
Minnesota still has not come together as a team and they had to make one heck of a comeback to beat the Cardinals at home. They’re on the road in Chicago but luckily the Bears are nothing special. Both defenses will get after the opposing quarterback, so I’d be surprised if this one gets above 45 points. Chicago’s offensive line is so brutal I can’t trust them to give Jay Cutler enough time against the Minnesota defense. The Vikings should be able to make a few more plays on offense to win the game, but it should be close.
Jacksonville opened as a seven-point favorite against the Texans but the public didn’t like that and bet it down to one. Houston’s secondary is a disaster and their passing game hasn’t come together. Jacksonville is extremely inconsistent, but a healthy David Garrard should give them stability at quarterback. I’m going with the wiseguys in Las Vegas and the Jags. This seems like a steal.
Seattle has truly been exposed the past few weeks. I never trusted them and seeing them get outscored 74-10 the past two weeks was what I expected out of them this year. Matt Hasselbeck returning to start the game will help the offense tremendously, but I still think little of them. I think so little of Seattle I’m picking Arizona to cover even though I have little faith in the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense has been creating turnovers all season and they’ll need to continue the trend on Sunday.
The Cowboys have been embarrassed so badly their past two weeks they had to make a coaching change. They’re really not that bad of a team, even with Jon Kitna at quarterback, and a coaching change should get them on track. I don’t think Dallas wins this one against Big Blue, but 13.5 points is too generous to pass up.
The Steelers aren’t anywhere nearly as dominant as I once thought they would be. Their defense has been strong but the offense has been sub-par compared to last year. For that reason I can’t see them blowing out the Pats, and neither can many other people. New England is not a world beater, but they’ll have a lot to prove after getting spanked by the Browns.
Donovan McNabb has a history of performing well in the face of criticism, but the Eagles are looking too good for me to pick against them. Mike Vick was awesome against the Colts, and the only thing that could stop the Eagles against the Skins would be another pair of broken ribs.
