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#pounditFriday, March 29, 2024

NFL Picks Week 11 – Doc Brown Special

It’s been three straight 2-1 weeks for the Doc in the Top 3 picks and the season percentage is still a stellar 74%. If you can’t make money off that, you’re a straight up chump. In fact, the Doc hasn’t had a losing week yet on his Top 3, going 1-1-1 once and then 2-1 or 3-0 every other week, so you now those are a strong play. Sure KC blew up in our face, but the Rams came home strong like we told you they would, and the Bucs were an easy cover over the Panthers. How about this week?

Knowing that you probably need to get your picks in for the Thursday night games, the Doc wanted to get his boards up in time for you. He’s still wrestling over his Top 3 selections but is locked in on the Packers.

Green Bay is coming off the bye week and their defense is getting healthy. They’ve gotten past the injuries that plagued them earlier in the season and their defense looks better than any other in the NFL. Conversely, Minnesota’s offense has been dreadful and it’s pretty clear they’re just not a good team. The Doc loves Green Bay in this one.

The Doc still has not decided on his other Top 3 picks. He really likes Oakland +7 at Pittsburgh, Buffalo +5.5 at Cincinnati, Detroit +6.5 at Dallas, and Baltimore -10.5 at Carolina. Make sure to check back frequently for updates on the picks including more analysis on games and the final word on the Top 3. More analysis of the picks after the chart.

UPDATE: The Doc has only locked in Green Bay -3 this week. He has recommended a full play on the Packers and half plays on Oakland +7, Buffalo +6, Detroit +7, and Baltimore -10.5, but he could not decide which two of the other four he likes for his Top 3.

DOC BROWN’S NFL PICKS WEEK 11:
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

Cincinnati is not a good team and it’s a wonder they’re so heavily favored. Buffalo may not be good, but they won their first game of the season last weekend and before that, they lost their previous three games each by a field goal. There is a scenario in which Cincinnati comes out hot and finally puts it all together for a blowout win, but I just don’t see that happening. Buffalo may not be good, but neither are the Bengals.

I’m not sure what Del sees in the Cowboys because even with a coaching change, I’m not sold. Turnovers and a pick six helped the Cowboys blow out the Giants, but it was much closer than that. Shaun Hill knows how to use his receivers and put points on the board. I really like the Lions plus the points in this one.

Kansas City has let me down a few weeks in a row, but they’ll finally be back home this weekend. They’re 4-0 and significantly better at Arrowhead Stadium. The line is thick and has me worried, but I have very little confidence in Arizona. I think the Chiefs will get a ton of turnovers and prevent the big play on defense.

The Jets giving a touchdown is a big line especially for a team that needed overtime to win its last two games. They’re back at home finally and that should make a big difference. Houston has not played well lately and making matters worse is Matt Schaub’s knee injury. If he’s marginally immobile, the Jets will take advantage with plenty of blitzes.

The Browns have played well their last three games but they managed to lose last weekend. Their game at Jacksonville should be a close one and I think the Jags will barely come out on top. If there’s anytime Colt McCoy puts up good passing stats during his rookie season, this game will be it, but the Jags still will prevail. David Garrard has been careful with the football and he’s played well since the awful showing on Monday night against Tennessee.

The Doc said a few weeks ago he didn’t trust the Raiders until they proved it, and they did just that with a win over Kansas City. Jason Campbell still has a good chance of struggling against Pittsburgh’s defense, but where I see Oakland covering is with their defense. Pittsburgh’s offense has not looked good for three weeks in a row. They have offensive line issues and the Patriots exposed that weakness with blitzes. The Raiders will do the same, and their defense will keep them within seven.

Baltimore’s offense is pretty good, but they haven’t ever really lit up the scoreboard and blown a team out. Their defense should perform just fine against the Panthers, but my only concern here is whether or not they can score enough to win by at least 11. Actually, it’s not really whether or not they can score enough to win by 11, it’s whether or not they’ll be motivated to score that many points.

Washington is coming off one of its worst losses ever. I’m not about to say they played well, but at least they scored some points in the game. If they’re not motivated to turn things around against Tennessee, then they have no pride and no pulse. I think they have both, and I don’t think Tennessee is very good. I think the seven points they’re getting is quite generous, and the result of the blowout. Otherwise a four point line would have been more reasonable.

The Falcons are a very good team, and perhaps the best team in the NFC. They looked great Thursday night against the Ravens. Their defense has played well and their offense is powerful. HOWEVA, I think this is a trap game and the Rams will pull the upset. St. Louis has a good defense, steady offense, and they play well at home. I just have a suspicion they get a surprise win in this one.

There isn’t a more exciting game than the Patriots and Colts this weekend. New England looked like a Super Bowl team dismantling the Steelers last weekend while the Colts looked vulnerable against the Bengals, and the previous week against the Eagles. I think the Pats are playing too well to lose, but it will likely be a field goal game. The hook has me taking the Colts and the points.

The hook is the reason The Doc is going with Tampa Bay on the road at San Francisco. The Niners are a significantly better team with Troy Smith at quarterback, and one has to figure they would be the division leader had he been starting since the opener. At least they finally have it right, but I just don’t see a blowout coming. Tampa Bay’s offense is sneaky and their defense is pretty solid. They should come within 3.5 points.

11.5 points is a lot for the Saints to give up at home against the Seahawks. I just don’t trust Seattle’s offense against a good defense, and I trust them even less on the road. New Orleans is starting to put it together and they look much better since their shaky start to the season. I would be surprised if Seattle gets more than 10 points.

Yeah, a three-point line is somewhat big for an NFC East game between two strong teams, but it’s reflective of how each squad looked last week. I’m finally a believer in Philly now that they have Vick in instead of Kolb. They look like a Super Bowl team and I’m confident they’ll win the game.

Las Vegas absolutely loves San Diego to make them a 10-point favorite over the Broncos. They’re a good team, but their fumbles and special teams problems have made their games a lot closer than they should have been. I think they’ll make enough of those mistakes to help the Broncos. 10 points was just too many to pass up.

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