Remember back in September when the Green Bay Packers were 1-2 and the Chicago Bears were 2-1 entering the Week 4 matchup between the teams? The Bears were looking like they were on the playoff track, while the Packers seemed to be in trouble.
Prior to that Sept. 28 game, the Bears had won two road games in a row, including an impressive 28-20 victory at San Francisco in Week 2. They also had beaten the Jets, who were 1-1 at the time (the Jets have lost seven in a row since and shown everyone how bad they are). The Packers had lost road games to the Seahawks and Lions and had only scored seven points against Detroit.
After Green Bay’s defeat at Detroit, Aaron Rodgers calmly told the fans and media to “relax,” because he knew the Packers would turn things around. And he was exactly right.
The 38-17 win over the Bears was the start of a 4-game winning streak for the Packers prior to their loss to the Saints in Week 8. Green Bay is now 5-3 entering Sunday’s home game against the Bears, who are 3-5. Both teams are coming off bye weeks and should be well-prepared for the game. Still, we like the Packers to win handily.
Chicago has tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed with 17 on the season. Thanks to Rodgers, the Packers are among the top passing teams in the league and rank sixth with 19 touchdown passes this season. This is a weakness we fully expect the Packers to exploit. They did it effectively in Week 4 when Rodgers threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns, including two each to Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. With Rodgers recovering from a tight hamstring that was evident against the Saints, we expect him to do even more passing from the pocket. In order to help defend against the Packers, the Bears need rookie first-round pick Kyle Fuller to play effectively despite his hip pointer.
Given their receiving weapons, the Bears unsurprisingly are one of the better passing teams in the league. They are tied for seventh in the league with 17 touchdown passes, and they rank slightly ahead of the Packers with 251 passing yards per game. But the area where they should attempt to exploit the Packers defense is on the ground. Not only are low temperatures and possibly snow expected for the game — both of which would make running the ball more favorable — but the numbers suggest running the ball is the way to beat the Packers.
Green Bay is last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and third-worst in rushing touchdowns allowed. Mark Ingram rushed for 172 yards against the Packers in Week 8, while the Seahawks and Bears both put up over 200 yards against them. Mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill and Cam Newton have all rushed for at least 40 against them, so be on the look out for Jay Cutler to scramble a few times. In order to keep Green Bay’s offense off the field, the Bears need to feed Matt Forte the ball.
Though we expect the Packers to have success throwing the ball against the Bears, they may do the opposite and hand the ball to Eddie Lacy and James Starks. The Bears will probably utilize a nickle package frequently in order to try slowing the passing game, which could open things up on the ground.
Here are two meaningful stats for this game: Mike McCarthy is 7-1 in games coming off a bye week, while Cutler is 1-9 in regular-season games against Green Bay. We expect those numbers to become 1-10 and 8-1.
