The second wild card in Major League Baseball has made the trade deadline even more interesting and complex. There are typically more buyers and fewer sellers by virtue of more teams being in contention for the extra playoff spots.
There are, however, a handful of teams that are either on the brink of selling or have seen the team’s play make their decision for them. These teams have some talent to spare, but aren’t going anywhere this year, and their long-term futures could be secured with some smart deadline deals.
Here are five teams that should be selling by the July 31 trade deadline.
The Tigers have long resisted this moment, but they can do it no more. They sit at 37-45, seven games out in the division, and the future doesn’t look any brighter. With a few exceptions, their best players are on the wrong side of 30, making a fair amount of money, and are heading for the twilight of their careers. Realistically, the era of contention for this Tigers core is finished, after coming close several times to the ultimate goal.
If general manager Al Avila wants to be honest, no one should be untouchable.
The Tigers would have to kick in some money to move the likes of Justin Verlander, but if it means they could get a better return for him, they should not hesitate to do so. J.D. Martinez, a free agent at season’s end, should command a significant haul. The likes of Miguel Cabrera and Jordan Zimmermann are likely untradeable due to their contracts or lack of production — or both — but the Tigers would be wise to make everyone available. It’s time to tear it down.
It’s safe to say that 2017 has not gone how the Giants envisioned. A playoff team last season, the Giants were largely undone by their bullpen, and hoped the acquisition of Mark Melancon would address their biggest weak spot. Not only has Melancon underwhelmed, but the rotation has collapsed. Madison Bumgarner is the only starter with an ERA under four, and he has only made four starts on account of an extremely ill-advised offday biking accident.
Johnny Cueto still has value and still expects to opt out of his contract at season’s end, making him a prime trade candidate. The rest of the team’s assets vary in value. Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Brandon Crawford would be considered untradeable, but that leaves the door open on the potential for Melancon and Brandon Belt leaving.
The Giants have retooled quickly in the past, and will have some tough decisions to make, but the current roster is obviously not working.
The Blue Jays got off to a horrendous start, winning just eight games in April before an 18-10 May gave them hope of a return to form. Unfortunately, June looked much more like April than it did May, with the team reverting back below .500 at 11-15. They’re 10.5 games out of the AL East lead, and well below the .500 mark, meaning reality is going to have to set in up north sooner rather than later.
Who could go? Starters Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano are both on expiring contracts and could fetch something in return, though both have struggled in 2017. If the Jays wanted to really blow things up and start over, they could move Josh Donaldson, though such a move seems particularly unlikely.
Toronto, as constructed, simply isn’t good enough, and they probably can’t justify buying. They’re in a tough spot, but selling is their best option.
The 38-46 Pirates are likely not going to make it happen in 2017 either. This is a team with a good amount of talent and a history of making savvy deals, so GM Neal Huntington is unlikely to shy away from the difficult decisions that need to be made here.
One of those could be an Andrew McCutchen trade, as the Pirates outfielder weathered an offseason of trade rumors only to see his team’s struggles continue. If that keeps up, his name will come up again. The fact that he has improved this season and rebuilt some of his value may make trading him even more appealing.
Lefty reliever Tony Watson is also poised for free agency and would make sense as a trade chip. If the Pirates want to go really big, floating Gerrit Cole’s name would make sense.
The Pirates have a lot of young talent, so a well-executed sale at this deadline could shape them for contention again pretty rapidly. They can keep or trade Cole and focus on building around the likes of Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, and their other young pieces. That would be the smart thing to do, and moving some veterans could facilitate a quick return to the playoffs if they do it right.
This will be controversial. On the surface, the Royals absolutely do not fit the profile of seller. They are 43-40, 1.5 games out in the AL Central, and in the thick of the American League wild card race. Shouldn’t they be buying? They are, after all, only two years removed from a World Series championship, and they retain much of the same core. Couldn’t a few extra pieces get them back to where they want to be?
It’s not that simple, and doing so would not be in the best interests of the organization long-term. Kansas City is facing the very real possibility that four of their core players will become free agents at season’s end and none will return. The Royals are not an organization that can throw money around and keep whomever they want. They’re limited by their budget and they know that the day they will have to deal with that is coming very soon.
Kansas City is in an incredibly tough spot. They have to ask themselves if they think they’re good enough to win a World Series, or if they can get there with a key acquisition or two. The realistic answer may well be no. Cleveland will be hard to topple in the AL Central, and they’ve gone 13-21 against division rivals in 2017. If that keeps up, they won’t make the playoffs, and if that happens after they keep the likes of Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas, it would be a disaster for the organization’s future. Those three players could all bring back significant returns if traded — returns that will benefit the organization for years to come. It would be a difficult decision. It would be criticized. But the best move Dayton Moore could make in the long-term interests of the franchise would be to sell.
Grey Papke covers all sports for Larry Brown Sports. Follow him on Twitter @spacemnkymafia, and you can reach him via email at gdpapke at gmail dot com.
