Who Will be the Next Lakers Head Coach? Handicapping the Odds

Many crushed Lakers fans spent the day Monday sulking and wondering how a team that was supposed to reach the Finals got swept by the Dallas Mavericks. Some people focused on the drama between Pau and Kobe. Others looked at the cheap shots by Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom. But some fans have already begun focusing on the future — one that may not involve some of their key players, and one that certainly will not include coach Phil Jackson.

This was widely accepted to be Phil’s final year as coach of the Lakers. He did not say he was officially done coaching them when asked on Sunday, but he had already distanced himself from the team by referring to them in the third person during his press conference. There is little doubt the Lakers will have a new coach next season, but the big question is who.

The Lakers can go in many different directions and it depends on several different factors. A lot of it will depend on whom they choose to build around in terms of personnel. If the Lakers remain Kobe’s team, then Brian Shaw will get a ton of consideration. If the Lakers pull off a trade for say Dwight Howard and change their focus, they could scrap the triangle offense and bring in someone entirely new.

While we’re unsure who the next coach will be, one aspect of the search is likely: it will take a lot of time. The Lakers are in no hurry to figure out their next coach, especially with the labor uncertainty. As John Ireland said on KSPN, they’re in no rush to add someone to the payroll.

Also on his show Monday, Ireland was asked by co-host Steve Mason to rate the chances of potential Lakers coaches. Mason threw out names that he read were possibilities for the Lakers job, and Ireland (a Lakers insider for KCAL TV and local LA radio host), rated their chances on a scale of 1-10. Here’s how the scale looked (keep in mind, these coach names were thrown out at him based on various reports).

Ratings on a scale of 1-10 by John Ireland:

Brian Shaw – 9
Mike Dunleavy – 8
Jeff Van Gundy – 7
Byron Scott – 7
Coach K – 7 (but unlikely to leave for it)
Rick Adelman – 6
Nate McMillan – 6
Kurt Rambis – 5
Mike Brown – 4
Michael Cooper – 3
John Calipari – 3

Again, these were all coaches whose names were thrown out there by Mason based on reports he had read, not ones for which Ireland gave the odds.

What stood out to me, aside from the obvious strong likelihood of Shaw getting the job, is the high rating Ireland gave Mike Dunleavy. Dunleavy coached the Lakers for two seasons and took them to the Finals. According to Ireland, there are quite a few people in the Lakers’ front office who think highly of Dunleavy and respect him, so he could have strong chances. What the Lakers do is anyone’s guess at this point, but to reiterate, the only certainty appears to be that this search will take a long time. Be patient Lakers fans, you’ll be waiting.