With two weeks off between the NFL’s conference championships and the Super Bowl, there’s plenty of time for storylines to emerge. You’ll hear a lot about Tom Brady’s thumb, his drive for another championship, the Eagles’ shot at a first Super Bowl for the franchise, Nick Foles’ rise to a Super Bowl quarterback, and much more.
What about some of the other storylines and factors that could have a big say in what happens in Minneapolis on Feb. 4? Here are ten X-factors to think about ahead of and during the big game.
1) Nick Foles’ health
A lot of coverage for the next two weeks will be devoted to the health of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. They’re certainly valid storylines, but there’s another matter on the other side that deserves attention. Eagles quarterback Nick Foles quietly got X-rays on his ribs after his team won the NFC title. While the injury doesn’t appear serious, the Eagles can’t really afford Foles being limited in this one. Will it matter for him? The hope and expectation is no, but it’s something to watch ahead of the game.
2) Which elite tight end steps up more
Everybody knows how good Rob Gronkowski is. He’s arguably the game’s leading tight end and a household name, and deservedly so. The Eagles have a rapidly improving tight end of their own, however, who will be looking to make a statement on a national stage. Zach Ertz has had a fantastic season, leading the team with 74 receptions and 824 yards. He’s Nick Foles’ primary target, too. Gronkowski will get the attention, but don’t be surprised if Ertz’s stat line is comparable to his when all is said and done.
3) How will the Patriots’ outgoing assistants handle things?
This is expected to be the final game with New England for Patriots’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. The former will be the next head coach of the Indianapolis Colts, while the latter is bound for the Detroit Lions.
Oddly enough, there’e some symmetry here. The Patriots have lost both of their coordinators to the head coaching ranks at the same time before — after the 2004 season, which concluded with a Super Bowl win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Bill Belichick will ensure that everyone stays focused, and the Patriots will be hoping that history repeats itself here.
4) The Philly defense must cover for Nick Foles
It’s sports, so you can never say never, but it’s a pretty good bet that Nick Foles won’t outplay Tom Brady. That means Foles is going to need some big-time support from his teammates on both sides of the ball to win this game. One big key will be the Philadelphia defense. If they can force a few turnovers or even help the Eagles win the field position battle, Foles will have shorter fields and, ideally, more chances to score by doing less. He certainly looked like a fantastic quarterback against a very good defense in Minnesota last weekend, but it would be foolish to put too much on him. This is going to have to be a team performance.
5) A Patriots loss could have big consequences
Usually when the Patriots are facing external pressure and questions, they find a way to win. Deflategate, for instance, served as an enormous motivator during last year’s Super Bowl run. This year, New England has overcome questions of organizational tension to march to the big game. What if they come this far and lose? Will there be changes or a major look in the mirror? The latter certainly seems possible, but this would be an intriguing offseason for the Patriots to go into if they lose.
6) Will the less experienced Eagles be intimidated by the moment?
Philadelphia has its fair share of veterans, but as a team, this is a group that hasn’t really been here before. That didn’t matter much against the more experienced Atlanta Falcons in the divisional round, but there was no major experience gap against the equally green Minnesota Vikings. There is no playoff foe that has been there and done it more than the Patriots have. Will that know-how make a difference? There’s a case to be made that it has for them so far, though the Eagles will downplay this as a factor.
7) New England’s under-the-radar offensive line faces a big test
The Patriots’ offensive line is regarded as solid but not elite, mostly flying under the radar and doing the job to protect Brady. They’ll be facing a very stern test against a loaded Eagles front four that boasts Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham, just for starters. Against the Jaguars, the unit allowed seven hits on Brady three sacks. They cannot do any worse than that against Philadelphia or it could be a long day for Brady and the offense.
8) How far can the disrespect narrative take Philadelphia?
It’s safe to say we’ll see dog masks in Minneapolis as the Eagles will be underdogs for the third consecutive playoff game. Thus far, that narrative has been fuel for a very intense fire, with Lane Johnson being one of several players to cite it as a motivating factor. Philadelphia was the top seed in the NFC but, mostly owing to the Carson Wentz injury, they haven’t been favored once. It’s a safe bet that many fans and pundits will be expecting New England to win this game. That could be the fuel that Philadelphia needs to pull another upset. It certainly seemed to fuel them against the Falcons and Vikings.
9) Fair or not, the referees will be under close scrutiny
The group of referees chosen to officiate the Super Bowl are always going to have every single remotely controversial call scrutinized, but there could be an added dimension to that in Minneapolis. The Jacksonville Jaguars were aggrieved that they were flagged six times during the AFC championship, but the Patriots took just one penalty. The fact that referee Clete Blakeman was so eager to congratulate Tom Brady at the conclusion of the game did little to quiet the conspiracy theories. There are definitely going to be a lot of people closely watching the officials for any signs of pro-Patriots bias. Will it impact how they call the game? Hopefully not and probably not, but it’s worth watching.
10) Who will the “neutral” fans cheer for?
The Minnesota Vikings were one game away from playing a Super Bowl in their home stadium. That didn’t happen, but that could still lead to a fairly strange dynamic in the stadium. Sure, there will be plenty of traveling Eagles and Patriots fans filling up U.S. Bank Stadium, but how many Vikings fans bought tickets when it became clear that their team had a real chance of playing in this game? How many will keep them? And who will those that do root for? The Patriots certainly aren’t popular, but Minnesota fans may not want to see the team that blew them out go on to win the Super Bowl in their own stadium, occupying a spot that many are bitter isn’t theirs. We’ll have to see if the environment is a factor.
