Four most likely spots for first-round NFL draft trades

Over the last eight drafts, teams have made 41 draft-day trades in the first round to move up–not including the pre-draft blockbusters like the Eagles trading up in March for Carson Wentz or Washington trading a haul of picks to be in position to take Robert Griffin III. That means that about five times each draft, you will see a trade roll in during the first round.

After going through the mock draft and seeing where value lines up with team needs, here are the pressure points where you could see those trades in 2019.

Picks 7, 8, and 9

Jacksonville, Detroit, and Buffalo are not taking a quarterback in the first round. A majority of the teams that immediately follow those picks, though, could consider it, with Denver (10), Cincinnati (11), Miami (13) and Washington (15) being candidates. We do not know what the Giants will do in the sixth slot. Dave Gettleman could select a quarterback, or take the player that one of the teams selecting right after covet. You could definitely see someone try to leap in front of Denver and the tenth slot here to get the quarterback they want. Last year, the first two draft day trades were Buffalo trading up from 12 to 7 to take Josh Allen, and Arizona trading from 15 to 10 to get Josh Rosen.

Picks 12-15

Green Bay’s needs more perfectly line up with getting multiple picks later in the first round to address playmakers on offense, and defensive secondary. I will point out that Green Bay with pick 12 and pick 75 matches up almost perfectly with Oakland at picks 24 and 27 in terms of the traditional draft value chart points. If Oakland wants to make a big move back up into the first round to get a quarterback, this is the entry spot where they could do it. Green Bay, meanwhile, could be in the right range to add Noah Fant, either Marquise or A.J. Brown, and still get a defensive player with picks 24, 27, and 30.

Even past Green Bay, the next three spots are also in play for teams wanting to maneuver. The Dolphins are in multi-year rebuild mode, and without a premium top five pick may want to accumulate picks. Atlanta likely has a couple of defensive targets they are hoping to get, but could trade back if they are gone. Washington could get outmaneuvered for a quarterback, and be willing to move back a few spots.

Meanwhile, those same slots could be key points for teams wanting to nab some defensive linemen or offensive tackles. Carolina at 16 is highly likely to go with either an offensive tackle or pass rusher. The Giants could do the same. The Vikings at 18 are almost certainly hoping to address offensive linemen. Houston, all the way down at 23, may decide they cannot wait on an offensive tackle, and package their first round pick with one of their second round picks, for example, to get to the 14 or 15 slot.

Picks 21 to 23

Seattle, Baltimore, and Houston were all playoff teams a year ago, and they can afford to take some chances and trade back if necessary here. They have several needs that could be addressed by accumulating picks. Houston may want to trade up for an offensive tackle, but if they do not, there is a decent chance the board develops in such a way that it makes sense to just trade back to the end of first round or early second round, still get another tackle, and add picks. Baltimore could target a center, but they would almost certainly be the first team to do so, and could also afford to move back a few slots. Seattle may want to address safety, but that’s another position where trading down makes sense.

Meanwhile, the top cornerbacks could still be out there, and the last of the pass rushers for a team willing to jump. In addition, someone could make a move here to get in front of Oakland’s two remaining first-round picks.

Picks 28 to 32

The end of the first round is always ripe territory for a trade. The Chargers, Chiefs, Patriots, and Rams are all able to make moves back and still get a player that can help them 5-10 picks later. Somebody may want to jump up for a quarterback, just like Baltimore did a year ago, to get that fifth-year option on a contract. Running backs have been frequent targets here (Mark Ingram and Doug Martin were both drafted after their teams traded up to get back in the first round), and Josh Jacobs could go off the board if someone pulls a trade. A tight end like Noah Fant could slip to a spot where someone wants to get in front of the Patriots, and some good wide receivers could be available.