The NFL Draft always goes how you will expect, until about ten minutes into it. Then things tend to go off the rails. Players sit in the green room and slip down the draft boards. Teams make big trade moves. Every step is determined by what happened before.
Here are ten of the biggest wild cards when it comes to determining how things will go.
10. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
The current expectation is that Murray is going to be Arizona’s choice, though that has not been decided yet, and there have been plenty of rumblings they could go elsewhere. If Murray does not go first, the draft gets going right away. That puts him in play for the Raiders at 4 or a trade-up scenario.
9. Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
Marquise Brown might be the best and most versatile receiver in this draft, but he has also been limited in the lead up to the draft because of injury. You could see him go anywhere from middle of the first round to sliding out altogether, and where he goes may be the signal for a wide receiver run.
8. Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
Will a running back be taken in the first round? You have to go back to the 2013 and 2014 drafts for the last time no running backs went in the first round. If it happens, Josh Jacobs is expected to be the pick. Last year, though, Seattle surprised by trading down twice and then selecting Rashaad Penny with the 27th pick, so you never know with this position.
7. Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
Andre Dillard might be the best future left tackle prospect in this draft, and certainly had the athletic testing most in line with other first round success stories. He could be a target anywhere in the draft for tackle-needy teams and just how high teams move for him will determine if there is a run at the position.
6. Rashan Gary, DT, Michigan
Rashan Gary now has a reported shoulder injury (torn labrum) that could require surgery for the team that drafts him. That medical issue could cause him to slide down the draft, after plenty of mock drafts that have put him going 6th to the Giants or 8th to the Lions. We will see just how serious teams view the injury by where he ends up being drafted.
5. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
Quarterbacks are always wild cards, and the opinions on Haskins are all over the place. There is some talk that he may fall in the draft, though he is expected to be off the board by the middle of the first round, but the destination is very much in doubt.
4. Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
Greedy Williams is the best cover corner in this draft, but he has not been a consensus top-15 pick. Nevertheless, you could see a team jump and take him much higher than expected. Last year, Denzel Ward went 4th overall as the top corner in the draft, when most projections had him around 9th.
3. Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
Montez Sweat put on an athletic show at the Combine, but there were concerns over a heart condition, though plenty of teams are not bothered reportedly. Because of pass rushing ability, Sweat could be the type of prospect that teams make a big splash move to acquire, or he could slip into the teens if the draft goes a different direction with a run on quarterbacks.
2. Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Lock could go before the 10th pick, or could be the subject of trade talks. Denver is highly linked to Lock, but what if that is all smokescreen? If he gets past the 10th pick, things could be wide open and he could fall to just about anywhere.
1. Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
Daniel Jones could be the biggest variable in this draft. Where will teams view him relative to the other quarterback prospects, and when will someone pull the trigger (possibly in a trade)? Plenty of people have suggested that Jones is viewed by several organizations as the second-best QB prospect in the draft. Others have him outside the first round entirely. Given the positional importance, you could see a big trade to move up early to draft Jones, or he could still be around after the Giants pick at #17 if this all just pre-draft talk and a by-product of smokescreen season.
Related: Mock Draft: Wisdom of the Crowd
