Del’s promise to turn things around in the second half continued to hold true for Week 10, as he finished off another good week 9-7 against the spread. Our goal of getting the overall ATS percentage back over 50-percent by season’s end is within reach, and a few more good weeks of picks should get us there. Those of you who have kept a close eye on Del’s top-3 picks are aware that he’s killing it — more so than ever now after going 3-0 for the second straight week in Week 11. This week is a pivotal week for a lot of teams who are looking to get back on track or remain in the playoff hunt, but we know a lot more about each team now than we did through the first few weeks of the season. Here are Del’s Week 11 NFL picks, with top-3 analysis after the chart. Be sure to check back later in the week when Doc Brown posts his picks for Week 11.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
The Lions have to show up ready to play this week, right? The Panthers have put up a fight against some good teams this season, but they obviously have a long way to go. That was evident in a 30-3 loss to an average Titans team at home last weekend. After back-to-back tough losses to NFC opponents, Detroit must have a sense of urgency heading into their game with Carolina. If they lose, they’ll be facing the Packers next weekend with a 6-4 record and in danger of slipping to 6-5. That would not put them in a good spot in the playoff picture. The Lions have to come out firing against the Panthers, and I expect that will happen. I’m confident Carolina won’t keep this one within 7.
The second team I like this week is the 49ers laying 9.5 at home against the Cardinals. Kevin Kolb will be out again for Arizona, and while the Cards have been able to win their last two games I don’t think John Skelton has been a huge reason for their success. Beanie Wells is still banged up and has lost the explosion we saw early in the season. Not to mention, the Niners run defense ranks first in the NFL, allowing an average of 73.2 yards per game. San Francisco could be the most confident team in football that doesn’t play in Green Bay, and their defense will force Arizona to throw which could get ugly. They should win by at least 10 points at home in a divisional game.
Finally, I’m taking the Giants only laying 4.5 points at the Meadowlands against Philadelphia. I don’t know if everyone has gotten the memo or not, but there’s a great chance Michael Vick isn’t going to play. The Giants lost a tough game to San Francisco last weekend, but they are still one of the better teams in the NFC. The Eagles seemed to have lost all their remaining swagger with Vick in the lineup, so what makes anyone think they can recover it with Vince Young leading the way? The last time Young took a snap for the Eagles LeSean McCoy had to let him know he was lined up in the wrong formation. The Giants should win by at least a touchdown.
