Week 7 was the first time the Doc struggled against the spread, and fittingly it was the same week he said the lines were difficult because of inconsistent teams. This week the Doc has a much better feel for the lines and is radiating with confidence. The Doc would also like to take the opportunity to remind you that his Top 3 picks of the week are now coming through at 76.5% which will make you cash anywhere.
Let’s start off going over the Top 3 picks (you can read more analysis on the rest of the games below). I’ve liked the Dolphins the entire year. They have a very good defense and had Pittsburgh on the ropes last weekend before a bad call screwed them. Their offense is steady but not spectacular, yet it’s capable of scoring points. They’re a much better team than the Bengals.
Just like Miami, I’ve loved Pittsburgh all year. It’s just not New Orleans’ season and they’re no longer getting the takeaways they did last year on defense. The Steelers’ offense and defense is strong. I pick them with confidence until they prove me otherwise.
I had Tampa Bay as one of my locks last week and they let me down, but they did pull off a 4th quarter comeback to win straight up. I think I have them well figured out; they can’t hang with teams better than them, but they do very well against opponents on their level. Arizona is certainly on their level, and Max Hall is showing why he went undrafted. I’m just hoping Derek Anderson doesn’t enter the game and heroically lead Arizona to a comeback. The Bucs are 2-0 on the road and they should make it 3-0 behind underrated quarterback Josh Freeman who’s best known as Mr. Comeback.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
The Bills are masters of backdoor covers. They get behind in games and surge back by throwing it late. Kansas City has a good secondary and I think they’ll shut down the vaunted Ryan Fitzpatrick-led passing game.
Who knows what to make of Dallas with Tony Romo out? Jon Kitna has a lot of weapons so he shouldn’t completely flop, but the Boys are not a very good team. The Jags meanwhile are totally inconsistent, but David Garrard has passed his concussion tests and should keep them competitive. I think they’ll get within the spread, if not win it outright.
Last week I was right about Carolina getting its first win of the season. Matt Moore and the Panthers won’t be as lucky this week against a better defense in St. Louis. Rams are good enough to win and cover the spread, and don’t worry, Steven Jackson will play.
Washington and Detroit is one of the games I had the most difficult time picking. I think highly of Matthew Stafford and am looking forward to his return from a shoulder injury. Still, facing Brian Orakpo, Albert Haynesworth, and the Washington defense is a tough task. I’ve been big on the Redskins all year because of their defense so I’m going with them for that reason. As for the offense, Donovan McNabb looked bad against Chicago and will need to put together a better game than last weekend otherwise they’ll suffer a St. Louis-like loss.
I contemplated taking Denver as one of my Top 3 picks this week. I’m big on teams bouncing back from embarrassing losses, so Denver’s debacle against Oakland certainly qualifies. The Broncos have beaten Seattle and Tennessee and came within a pass interference call of beating the Jets. They’re better than San Francisco.
The Jets have been one of the best teams in the NFL against the spread this year and coming off a bye certainly should help make them fresh. Still, Green Bay has Clay Matthews back healthy and he makes a huge difference to their defense. Just having him back is enough to keep the margin close.
Has there been a 2-5 team in history Vegas has liked more than the Chargers? How can they be favored over a 5-2 Tennesee team? If they don’t bobble the ball on special teams or lose careless fumbles as they’ve been doing THE ENTIRE SEASON they can finally win the way they should be. That’s what I’m betting on when I pick them to cover.
Brett Favre will take a painkilling injection, play against New England, and throw a touchdown pass or two in the game. I’m not worried about the Pats winning the game, but I don’t know if they have enough firepower to blow an opponent out.
Settle down Raiders fans, I know you’re thinking Super Bowl after throwing up 59 against the Broncos, but don’t get stunned by Seattle. The Seahawks have a darn good pass rush and can get after the quarterback. They’ll give Jason Campbell hell and come out of the Black Hole with a win.
Houston’s win over Indy wasn’t a fluke — they play the Colts tough and will certainly be up for the game. Indy’s injuries will hurt them but as long as they have Peyton Manning they’re the favorites. The difference in health between the teams makes me go with Houston plus the points.
