While a loss by Boise State and wins by Oregon and Auburn have made the National Championship Game projection more clear, other results from Saturday have altered the BCS bowl game scenarios. Since our last BCS bowl game projections, one-loss LSU fell to Arkansas, Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State, Pitt dropped to West Virginia, and of course Boise State was knocked off. Here’s what the current BCS bowl games projections are:
National Championship Game: Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. UConn
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Stanford
Oregon needs to beat Oregon State Saturday at Corvallis to reach the Championship Game and Auburn needs to beat South Carolina in Atlanta to join them in Glendale, Arizona. If either team loses, 12-0 TCU will likely replace them in the title game. If both teams lose, we could wind up with a Stanford-TCU National Championship Game, imagine that!
The Sugar Bowl gets the SEC champion and then the first replacement pick of at-large teams. With Auburn gone to the National Championship Game, they would take Arkansas which is the second place SEC team. The most desirable remaining at-large team is Ohio State. If the Buckeyes finish ahead of Wisconsin in the final BCS standings, Wisconsin could go to the Sugar Bowl and Ohio State to the Rose Bowl. If South Carolina upsets Auburn in the SEC Championship Game, Auburn would go to the Sugar Bowl and the Hogs could end up in the Fiesta Bowl.
The Orange Bowl gets the ACC champion which will be the winner of the conference title game between Virginia Tech and Florida State in Charlotte Saturday. The OB would get the next at-large selection, which would be either Stanford (automatically in as the number four team in the BCS standings) or the Big East champion. As long as UConn beats South Florida, they’re the champs and a logical selection for the OB. Don’t underestimate Stanford though, their alumni have lots of money and will love to travel to see their football team in a big-time bowl.
The Fiesta Bowl gets the Big 12 champion, which is the winner of the Nebraska-Oklahoma game in Kansas City Saturday. I’m projecting the Huskers to win the game for now, which would place them in Tempe, but it could very easily be the Sooners. Their opponent would be the team the Orange Bowl does not take between Stanford and the Big East champion. A Stanford-Nebraska or a Stanford-Oklahoma game would be a lot of fun. The losing team in the Big 12 championship game will not make a BCS bowl game.
The Rose Bowl is likely to lose Oregon to the National Championship Game and gets the Big Ten champion automatically. It would love to have Stanford and either Wisconsin or Ohio State in a traditional matchup, but a quirky new rule makes them obligated to take TCU. TCU does not have a large fan base and does not travel well, so they would be an undesirable team.
