Super Bowl LI is coming up on Sunday between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. The Patriots are favored in the game by about three points most places, and money is being distributed pretty equally on both sides of the spread.
If you’re reading this, you’re probably wondering who the writers at LBS think is going to win. It’s time to answer that question.
Below is the Super Bowl pick from all the LBS staff members.
Larry Brown: Patriots 20 Falcons 17
The No. 1 offense has faced the No. 1 defense in the NFL seven times in Super Bowl history. The team with the No. 1 defense prevailed all but once, including the last two Super Bowls. I think this game will continue that trend.
Just when everyone thinks the game will be high-scoring, I think it will go the opposite direction. The Patriots’ specialty is taking away an opponent’s No. 1 weapon, and they will do that by double-covering Julio Jones. Then they’ll shut down Mohamed Sanu with Malcolm Butler. It will come down to Taylor Gabriel and the Falcons running backs to get the job done because Matt Ryan won’t be posting another 120-plus passer rating game.
The Falcons will also try to stop the Patriots’ passing game and won’t let Chris Hogan have a big game as he’s done the past two contests for New England. Expect Martellus Bennett to catch a touchdown and LeGarrette Blount to run for 100-plus yards and a score. Blount will be named MVP.
Steve DelVecchio: Patriots 24 Falcons 20
In a game that many are envisioning as a shootout for the ages, don’t be shocked if the exact opposite happens. Even if these are the two best offenses in the NFL, both teams have defensive-minded head coaches who will have had two weeks to watch film and prepare. Bill Belichick’s goal will be to keep Matt Ryan on the sidelines as much as possible, and Dan Quinn will aim to do the same against Tom Brady. The Falcons have a slightly undersized defense, which could set up as a LeGarrette Blount game for New England. On the flip side, the Patriots have an above average secondary that could inspire Atlanta to lean on their dynamic running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
Both teams are loaded with skill players on offense. While they hardly faced a good quarterback this season, the Patriots had the best scoring defense in the NFL. They’re more experienced on that side of the ball, which is always important in a game with such high stakes. The Falcons may have more talent on their roster from top to bottom, but coaching should be the difference. Belichick will be coaching in his 10th Super Bowl as either an assistant or head coach. That means he has been on the sidelines for nearly 20 percent of all the Super Bowls in NFL history. That has to count for something, right? His goal is always to take away an opponent’s best player, and he should be able to devise a game plan to at least slow down Julio Jones.
Atlanta’s best chance of winning the game is to rattle Brady. Vic Beasley is more than capable of getting to the passer, but Brady is arguably the best all time at getting his offensive linemen where they need to be and identifying where pressure is coming from. Ultimately, I think it’s the Patriots who will make one or two more plays and lean on their glaring advantage in poise and experience in what should be a tight game.
Grey Papke: Patriots 35 Falcons 31
The old adage is that defense wins championships, and I’m sticking to that here. The Falcons offense is entirely capable of hurting New England in a big way, but ultimately, Tom Brady and the Patriots can do the same to Atlanta. For that reason, this will come down to defense. New England’s No. 1 scoring defense will make the difference, though Atlanta will give them all they can handle. In the end, it’s hard to pick against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in games like this. They’ll have New England ready, and it will be close, but the Patriots’ defense will slow down Atlanta just enough to allow Brady to drag the team over the finish line.
Darryn Albert: Falcons 38 Patriots 30
A Wild Wild West-style shootout awaits us on Sunday. Julio Jones is the league’s premier matchup nightmare and should be at an all-you-can-eat buffet against New England’s undersized secondary. Meanwhile, Taylor Gabriel and Devonta Freeman will be ready to turn this thing into a track meet behind the steady game-managing presence of Matt Ryan. But the Patriots are more than capable of matching Atlanta’s historic offense blow for blow on the strength of Tom Brady’s Revenge: The Ride in its ultimate culmination. The slippery likes of Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan will serve as his WMDs, while LeGarrette Blount Force Trauma should provide a dynamic change-of-pace to the Foxboro attack. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring back-and-forth affair, but on the final drive of the game, count on Vic Beasley, suddenly possessed by the demon spirit of Roger Goodell, recording a strip sack of Brady to seal the victory for the Falcons and send the image of a crying Dan Quinn cradling the Lombardi Trophy into the grand halls of Internet meme lore.
Gordon Dixon: Patriots 31 Falcons 28
Both teams boast great quarterback play. Brady has won two regular season MVPs, three Super Bowl MVPs, and just put together a season at 39 years old where he threw for 28 touchdowns and just two interceptions in 12 games. Matt Ryan is the likely MVP winner for this season after putting together the best season of his career and guiding the Falcons to one of the most potent offenses in league history. The Patriots weren’t shabby on offense either, finishing the regular season third in scoring, behind the Falcons and Saints.
Points likely won’t be hard to come by for either team. However, the Patriots have a bit more on the defensive side of the ball, as evidenced by New England leading the NFL in points allowed (15.6) while the Falcons were 27th (25.7). The Patriots will probably surrender more than that, but I have more confidence in them coming up with a key defensive stop when they need it than I do the Falcons.
It should be an entertaining Super Bowl.
Dan Benton: Falcons 24 Patriots 23
The Patriots are clear-cut favorites entering Super Bowl LI, but that means little in a winner-take-all game. Not to mention, throughout their dynasty, New England has not once had a Super Bowl decided by more than four points with most coming right down to the wire. I expect more of the same on Sunday with Atlanta ultimately walking away
the surprise champions thanks in large part to a young, speedy defense and a brilliant gameplan compiled by head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Richard Smith.
