LBS is introducing a new guest picker to the site. Please give a warm LBS welcome to Tickle Me Armo.
Tickle Me Armo currently leads the LBS Pick ‘Em Pool and was a top-3 finisher last year. He is picking 60 percent of his games successfully this season, including spreads and over/under lines. The guy really knows his stuff and kills it on the parlays.
Below are his best bets for the Saints-Panthers Thursday night game, along with a third NFL pick for Week 9.
1. Saints/Panthers: OVER 48
• The total on TNF has gone over 7 out of 8 games so far. That’s an incredible 87.5% of the games. Scoring has been +8.3 points over what the projected spread of the games have been. The average score is 53.00ppg with the lowest score being Steelers-Ravens (26-6 for a total of 32) and the highest score being Bucs at Falcons (56-14 for a total of 70). NO road games are averaging a combined 55.8 ppg. Only once has the over gone under 48 and that was at Detroit when Drew threw an INT in the last 4:00 of the game, helping the Lions to come back and get a game winning TD to end the game. Even though Carolina doesn’t score a lot and has a good defense that matches up well against the Saints, I feel that with the prime time lights on, both teams will be going for high a scoring game. It won’t be a blowout in any way, but it’ll come down to a last minute TD or FG that will get the over 48. The NFL and its refs have to highlight its stars and in this case that is Brees and Cam Newton.
Prediction: Saints 34-27
2. Saints -2
• Everybody knows how bad the Saints are on the road and how well the Panthers play at home…but my gut is telling me that there is no way that these guys go 0-5 on the road. Their season is on the line and it is only Week 9. They have to win every road and home game to at least make it into the playoffs. This is where you throw away all of the stats and the trends of the past games and just go with your gut feeling. The numbers don’t look that favorable for the Saints but this is where numbers lie….the heart of the champ will show and we will see Brees smiling in the post-game talking to Deion about baby mama drama. I like the Saints to win by a TD and get back on a winning streak. The Saints have way more weapons and they will be throwing bombs up and down the field, the Panthers will have to start throwing if they have any to come back and contain the Saints and I don’t see that happening. I expect a backdoor TD to keep the score closer than it actually is.
Prediction: Saints 34-27
3. Ravens/Steelers: OVER 47
• Just like the TNF games, the SNF games have been high scoring in the previous 8 games. The over has hit the over 7 out of 8 games, that’s 87.5% of the time. Scoring has been +4.13 points over what the projected spread of the games have been. The average score has been 53.38 ppg with the lowest score being Eagles-Giants (Eagles won 27-0) and the highest score being Saints-Packers (Saints won 44-23). The Ravens have been on a high scoring streak of their own. They have gone over 4 out of the last 6 games. More importantly they have gone over 4 out of the last 5 road games. The Steelers have been on fire lately and they have hit on the over 7 out of their last 8 games at home. They usually play the Ravens close and usually in the low 40’s but I expect a high scoring game. Throw in a few long bombs for touchdowns and a few intercetions (preferably by Flacco) and the over will hit. The over/under has flopped each of the last 5 games in this matchup…with that being said, it’s the over’s turn to hit. Steelers are a home dog as well, when that happens, the Steelers have a ridiculous 6-1-1 record ATS since 2005. They have gone over 5 out of those 8 games as well.
Prediction: Steelers 28-24
