Doc Brown picked things up with with a much more respectable showing in week four, including a 3-0 week on the top three. Although many of the lines are well-placed, making the picks difficult, we’re confident we’ve come up with some good selections for you. Here are the picks for Week 5 against the spread and straight up, with select analysis below.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
The Doc is loving Philly this week. While Buffalo has a good offense and their running game shouldn’t have trouble, their passing game may struggle. The Bills didn’t have it going through the air last week and should find similar problems against the Eagles, who may simplify things for Nnamdi. Meanwhile, after blowing a big lead to San Francisco, Philly will be motivated. Don’t get caught up in all the Eagles’ problems and talks about them dropping the “Dream Team” nickname; they’re still an extremely talented team. They’ll prove it once again this week.
Even though San Francisco has played teams closely under Jim Harbaugh — and impressively came back to beat the Eagles — I’m not buying them. They’ve beaten two bad teams, so don’t get fooled by their 3-1 record. Their defense is good, and the offense finally isn’t making mistakes. This one will likely be a close, low-scoring game. It will probably be determined in the last five minutes by a field goal. I think Tampa Bay is a better squad, and Josh Freeman has more capability of leading a fourth quarter scoring drive than Alex Smith. That will likely be the difference.
Much like the Eagles, the Jets are a team taking a lot of criticism from the media this week. I don’t see what they’ve done to deserve it. They lost to a solid Raiders team on the road, and they got beat badly by an excellent Ravens squad, also on the road. Their offense has struggled — which is nothing new — but they should be able to score against a weak Patriots defense. I think many people are forgetting how difficult the Jets defense makes things for Tom Brady. I really think they have his number. This year may be different because the tight ends and Wes Welker look better than ever, but I don’t see the Jets getting blown out. I’m really shocked that the spread is so high and feel like this is a gift from the oddsmakers.
