NFL Week 1 expert picks against the spread – Del’s picks

And we’re back, folks. After a painful 2013 NFL season, Doc Brown and Del are with you once again to bring you our expert* analysis all season long. Let’s just say 2013 was not a good year for picks here at LBS. Both Doc and Del were beat up all season and finished below the 50% mark against the spread and with weekly locks. The good news about that? It has us more motivated for the 2014 season.

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For those of you who are first-timers, we pick every game against the spread and straight up every week. The picks you see highlighted in blue are the games we feel best about. If you’re a gambler — not that we promote that kind of thing (cough, cough) — and you happen to trust us, those are the ones you want to pay close attention to.

Without further ado and pathetic disclaimer, here are Del’s picks for Week 1 of the NFL season. Read analysis of the Top 3 selections below the chart. Check back later in the week for Doc Brown’s picks.

For the first lock of the season, I’m going with my boy Drew Brees and the Saints on the road laying three against Atlanta. The Falcons were terrible last season. While I expect them to improve slightly, their defense is still below average and the loss of Tony Gonzalez could slow the offense a bit — especially through the first few weeks of the season. Having Julio Jones back will be a major boost for Matt Ryan, but is it enough to keep up with an explosive New Orleans offense that has a healthy Jimmy Graham, a healthy Marques Colston and an impressive rookie in Brandin Cooks? I have plenty of doubts. This should be a shootout with the Saints winning by a touchdown.

Next, we’re going with the Bears giving the Bills seven at home. Simply put, I think the Bears are going to light it up this season. Is Josh McCown really as good as he played last season when Jay Cutler was injured, or is head coach Marc Trestman just that much of an offensive genius? I think it’s the latter, and he should show that this season. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery could be the best receiving duo in the NFL. Cutler and company are poised for a breakout year, while EJ Manuel should still experience some growing pains. Rookie sensation Sammy Watkins is a great asset, but can Manuel get him the ball consistently? And will the Bills finally figure out how to use CJ Spiller? We’ll see, but I’m not banking on it on the road in Week 1.

Finally, I’m taking the Jets to cover five points against the Raiders in New York. Oakland recently announced that rookie Derek Carr has earned the starting quarterback job after his impressive play in the preseason. The Jets are thin at quarterback and don’t have the personnel they had in past years, but we were reminded on Wednesday that only two rookie quarterbacks have played played four quarters in a game and defeated Rex Ryan’s defense (Russell Wilson and EJ Manuel). That’s an impressive enough trend to have me thinking the Jets can kick off their season with a 7-point win or more. Carr is still incredibly raw, and Ryan is a mastermind at drawing up pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That should be the difference.