The Golden State Warriors are considered clear favorites to beat the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals and win their fourth championship in five seasons, and it’s easy to understand why. They have players who will go down as some of the best in their era, and they didn’t even need Kevin Durant to coolly send the Portland Trail Blazers home. They are a historic juggernaut, and they still appear to be at the peak of their powers despite the occasional bit of drama both on and off the court.
You won’t find many people who give the Raptors much of a chance in the series. Experts across the board are picking Golden State almost universally, and you can hardly argue with their reasoning. After all, the Warriors vanquished all comers in the last two seasons, and a Cleveland Cavaliers team that boasted both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving proved little match for the Durant-era Warriors.
So why should Toronto, a team that doesn’t have that level of top talent, be any different?
The Raptors do, in fact, have a chance, and there are a few reasons to believe it. Start with Toronto’s supporting cast, which has a pretty high ceiling that still hasn’t been reached yet. Marc Gasol, a player reportedly acquired with this exact matchup in mind, has been an All-Star talent in the past and is a gifted passer by big man standards. Gasol had a pretty quiet series against Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals, and has definitely ceded some of the scoring to his teammates since arriving in Toronto. That said, this is a player who averaged 15.7 points and 8.6 rebounds per game before being traded this season. There is room for more production from him. The same is true of three-point shooter Danny Green, who had a terrible series against Milwaukee, hitting just 17.4 percent of his threes. Green is a 40 percent shooter from three in his career. It’s hard to see him being that terrible for another series.
Then there are the stars. Kyle Lowry, despite battling an injury, was an enormous part of the victory over Milwaukee, successfully filling a role as the team’s distributor and second-leading scorer. Pascal Siakam has quickly become one of the game’s most exciting young players, combining speed and power into an elite package. Kawhi Leonard is certainly making an argument to be recognized as the best player in these playoffs, coming up just shy of a 30 and 10 average against Milwaukee. The quiet superstar is an elite two-way player with whom even the Warriors will struggle to match up.
Yes, the reality is Toronto’s supporting cast has to be close to perfect, while Leonard — and perhaps Lowry — will both need to go off consistently. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Certainly, especially when you consider the matchup. Toronto is a much better defensive team than the Cavaliers ever were, and the combination of Siakam, Green, and Leonard working the perimeter is as fearsome a trio as Golden State will have faced all season. The Warriors have shredded good defenses before, and they will probably do so again, but this will not be easy for them, especially if they are forced to play a perimeter-oriented game against Toronto.
That’s where Durant’s status comes in. The star forward has already been ruled out of Game 1 due to his troublesome calf, and his status moving forward in this series is murky. The simple fact is Durant does make the Warriors better because he is a weapon who can be called on in any situation and does things that no other Warriors player can do. Without him, the team becomes significantly more perimeter-oriented. For a team that boasts Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, that’s never a bad thing, but the Raptors will be as prepared to defend that as any team could be. Toronto has shooters too — Lowry, Green, Leonard, Norman Powell, and Fred VanVleet are all capable three-point shooters. If Golden State starts missing jumpers, Toronto has the players to make them at the other end and make things interesting quickly.
It’s also worth bearing in mind that, for the first time in their five consecutive Finals appearances, Golden State will not have home court advantage. The Raptors can claim that on account of having one more win than Golden State did in the regular season, and it could matter. Toronto is 8-2 at home in these playoffs, and they will have the opportunity to set a marker down in the first two games — and, if necessary, host a decisive Game 7.
The reality is Toronto’s best players will have to play their best games, and Golden State’s will have to be a bit less sharp than they’re capable of being. Stranger things have happened, though, and the Raptors have the players to take advantage if the Warriors leave the door open for them to do so. It may not be likely, but it’s absolutely possible.
