New BCS Bowl Game Projections: Arkansas, Stanford, UConn Now in

While a loss by Boise State and wins by Oregon and Auburn have made the National Championship Game projection more clear, other results from Saturday have altered the BCS bowl game scenarios. Since our last BCS bowl game projections, one-loss LSU fell to Arkansas, Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State, Pitt dropped to West Virginia, and of course Boise State was knocked off. Here’s what the current BCS bowl games projections are:

National Championship Game: Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. UConn
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Stanford

Oregon needs to beat Oregon State Saturday at Corvallis to reach the Championship Game and Auburn needs to beat South Carolina in Atlanta to join them in Glendale, Arizona. If either team loses, 12-0 TCU will likely replace them in the title game. If both teams lose, we could wind up with a Stanford-TCU National Championship Game, imagine that!

The Sugar Bowl gets the SEC champion and then the first replacement pick of at-large teams. With Auburn gone to the National Championship Game, they would take Arkansas which is the second place SEC team. The most desirable remaining at-large team is Ohio State. If the Buckeyes finish ahead of Wisconsin in the final BCS standings, Wisconsin could go to the Sugar Bowl and Ohio State to the Rose Bowl. If South Carolina upsets Auburn in the SEC Championship Game, Auburn would go to the Sugar Bowl and the Hogs could end up in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Orange Bowl gets the ACC champion which will be the winner of the conference title game between Virginia Tech and Florida State in Charlotte Saturday. The OB would get the next at-large selection, which would be either Stanford (automatically in as the number four team in the BCS standings) or the Big East champion. As long as UConn beats South Florida, they’re the champs and a logical selection for the OB. Don’t underestimate Stanford though, their alumni have lots of money and will love to travel to see their football team in a big-time bowl.

The Fiesta Bowl gets the Big 12 champion, which is the winner of the Nebraska-Oklahoma game in Kansas City Saturday. I’m projecting the Huskers to win the game for now, which would place them in Tempe, but it could very easily be the Sooners. Their opponent would be the team the Orange Bowl does not take between Stanford and the Big East champion. A Stanford-Nebraska or a Stanford-Oklahoma game would be a lot of fun. The losing team in the Big 12 championship game will not make a BCS bowl game.

The Rose Bowl is likely to lose Oregon to the National Championship Game and gets the Big Ten champion automatically. It would love to have Stanford and either Wisconsin or Ohio State in a traditional matchup, but a quirky new rule makes them obligated to take TCU. TCU does not have a large fan base and does not travel well, so they would be an undesirable team.

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  • Anonymous

    Correction: If South Carolina upsets Auburn in the SEC Championship Game, South Carolina would automatically go to the Sugar Bowl as the SEC Champion. The National Championship Game would shift to Oregon v. TCU. Stanford would replace TCU in the Rose Bowl as the PAC-10 replacement, and Auburn would likely go to the Orange or Fiesta as an at-large, 1-loss team. Arkansas would be completely OUT of the running for a BCS game. Under BCS rules, only TWO teams from any one conference can play in the BCS (SC and Auburn would take those slots for the SEC). The wild card would be who gets the at-large spot given up by Arkansas? Missouri would be ideal at 10-2. Or, the LOSER of the Big 12 or ACC championship games could get the bid. (A team must have 9 wins to earn a BCS spot). Or…Boise or Nevada could sneak into the BCS as 1-loss at large berths (long shots).

  • Anonymous

    Stanford? No way. Don’t believe in them. They’ve played about as weak kneed a schedule as you can possibly get

  • Anonymous

    Stanford? No way. Don’t believe in them. They’ve played about as weak kneed a schedule as you can possibly get

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_LFHZJGW4Y6KIH725OXU2FN6V3A Joel

    If TCU doesn’t travel well to the Rose Bowl, than at least there won’t be Wisconsin fans who couldn’t get tickets stuck in a hospitality tent with a big screen in the Rose Bowl parking lot.

    If it’s Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, no problem, either. Buckeye fans would travel to the Planet Mongo to see their team play.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_3OZEEVBNTGJFQNCCJJH67TSBDQ Josh

    Reedr has the right idea. I caught that when reading the projections as well. I don’t have any idea who they would choose if South Carolina loses. True that Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and the Big 12 CC loser would all be somewhat appealing, but because they are all in the exact same position I would guess BCS representatives wouldn’t want the Big 12 to get the nod for 2. Florida State would be unranked and undesirable as well (if they lose). It’s kind of ugly. No way does Nevada get the call. Boise State? – I would not put $1 on 1:10 odds for them either. It would actually be a lot of fun to “project” who fills the final spot.

    Also, does UConn seriously present a “better” pick than Stanford? I would think Stanford would be a hundred times better selection but a lot of analysts have UConn picked first. Oklahoma or Nebraska should fill plenty of seats and the TV attraction of Stanford/OU or NU would be infinitely better.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_3OZEEVBNTGJFQNCCJJH67TSBDQ Josh

    Just for fun, imagine that this is actually possible (actually only really in the twilight zone, but come on):

    National Championship Game: Stanford vs. TCU (unlucky NC!)
    Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon (lucky Rose Bowl!)
    Sugar Bowl: South Carolina vs. Ohio State
    Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
    Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Oklahoma

    A rematch from the conference championship? I don’t think anything in the BCS selection rulebook would prevent the Fiesta from choosing Oklahoma (not that I checked). If the game ended like the Nebraska-Texas game did last year then I could absolutely see them picking up a rematch.