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Tuesday, October 21, 2014

NFL picks against the spread Week 3 — Del’s selections

The good news about Week 2 is that it was a slight improvement on Week 1. Del was able to get seven picks right against the spread and actually get one of his top three selections correct. The bad news is it still wasn’t great. However, we’re only heading into Week 3. There is more than enough time to get the top three turned around before the end of the season and start picking at above a 50% rate, and that’s exactly what we’re planning to do.

Week 3 includes a lot of tricky games with plenty of toss-ups that could go either way and a few mismatches with massive spreads. Sounds like a good week to catch fire, if you ask me. Below are Del’s Week 3 NFL Picks, with analysis of the top three after the sheet. Be sure to check back later in the week for Doc’s locks.

NFL PICKS WEEK 3
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

NFL-Picks-Week-3

If the Bengals team that takes the field against the Packers is the one we saw on Monday night against the Steelers, Green Bay should easily cover a 2.5-point spread. With Jordy Nelson looking surprisingly healthy, the Packers have too many weapons for opposing defenses to handle. In order to keep up with Green Bay, Cincinnati is likely going to have to score in bunches. Andy Dalton was wildly inaccurate on Monday and Pittsburgh did a great job of taking away AJ Green. If the Packers can do the same, the Bengals will struggle to get into a rhythm. This one could be a letdown for Bengals fans at home.

The only thing that scares me about my second lock of the week is that it seems too good to be true. The Vikings lost to a very good Bears team on the road last week by a point, thanks to a game-winning drive by Jay Cutler. In Week 1, they hung with the Lions — also on the road. How are the Browns going to keep this game within a touchdown in Minnesota with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer starting and Trent Richardson gone? I’d be shocked if they do.

And finally, we’re rounding out the week by picking on the Steelers. Pittsburgh seems OK defensively, but Ben Roethlisberger and company are a complete mess on offense. Antonio Brown has already reportedly blown up on Todd Haley over not seeing enough passes and rookie running back Le’Veon Bell is still not ready to return. The Steelers have absolutely no rushing attack, which should make their offense easy for Chicago to contain. I don’t expect another 31-point performance from Marc Trestman’s new offense, but the Bears shouldn’t need to score that much. Unless an entirely different Pittsburgh team shows up, we have no reason to believe the Bears can’t cover three points.



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