When the Super Bowl betting line was released Sunday, many sportsbooks had the Patriots favored over the Giants by 3.5 points. Covers.com says a lot of public money came in on the Patriots. They say the public money was countered by professional money, which was enough to move the line down to 3 at many books. One sportsbook manager called it a feast of sharks.
“I just think the Giants are the better team,” the sportsbook director who sets the line for M Resort and Venetian told Covers. “I think they’ll run right through New England and defensively they’ll pressure Brady. And they already won in New England this season.”
Heavy money was also expected to come in on the Giants moneyline, which gives bettors better payout odds if the Giants win the game. The line is currently at 3 most places, which would result in a push if the game were decided by a field goal.
So far I’m leaning towards the Giants, and certainly would have liked them at +3.5. I like to wait the entire two weeks before making my pick because I generally use an indicator to guide my selection. The key is determining which team feels more like they have work left to do, and which team feels like they’ve arrived.
Last week’s indicator was Alex Smith’s sit-down interview with ESPN; it reeked of “I’m already in the same class as Joe Montana and Steve Young.” At last year’s Super Bowl, it was Big Ben and the Steelers out late at night while Aaron Rodgers was in his hotel room studying. As soon as I see something like that, I know what my pick will be.
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