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Saturday, July 11, 2020

Odds of Kyler Murray being No. 1 overall pick have dramatically shifted

Kyler Murray

It was not all that long ago that Kyler Murray was considered a virtual lock to be the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, but expectations have shifted for some over the past week or so. With more and more analysts speculating that the Arizona Cardinals could go in a different direction, oddsmakers have made major adjustments in advance of Thursday night.

As of Monday, Murray had -2500 odds at many sportsbooks to be the No. 1 pick in the draft.

That means if you bet $100 on Murray to be the top pick and he was, you would win a whopping $4. In other words, it was considered close to a certainty. Fast-forward to Thursday, and oddsmakers were far less confident in the Cardinals — or another team that might trade up — taking Murray.

It would seem that some people believe the Cardinals are going to take a defensive player with the first overall pick. Former Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa has the best odds behind Murray at around +350, but Pete Watt of Oddschecker told Larry Brown Sports there have been a flurry of bets placed on Alabama’s Quinnen Williams to go No. 1 over the past two days. The odds on Williams being the top pick have shifted from +1400 to +450 in under a week.

“The market has shades of last year’s draft, when relative long-shot Baker Mayfield ended up going first to the Browns,” Watt said. “Williams would be a top asset but, despite his shortening price, the smart money is surely on the Cardinals to take Murray.”

The Cardinals have insisted all along that they are not yet decided on what to do with the No. 1 pick, and a recent report made it seem like they may be happy with their current quarterback situation. While it would still be a shock if they traded back or chose a player other than Murray, it clearly is not out of the question.

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