As the 2016 NCAA football season gets underway, debate generally focuses on national championship contenders and potential Heisman Trophy winners. But each year there are a number of surprise teams that make waves across the college football spectrum, and 2016 will be no different.
Here’s a quick look at five Power-5 teams that could alter the course of their conferences this season.
5. Nebraska Cornhuskers, Big Ten
Nebraska finished with a 6-7 record in head coach Mike Riley’s first season with the team, and much of that can be attributed to their minus-12 turnover margin. In six of those seven losses, the Cornhuskers were within eight points, but weren’t able to overcome the opposition’s points off of turnovers. They also suffered a 10-point loss to Purdue with quarterback Tommy Armstrong sidelined due to injury.
In 2016, Nebraska will look to shore up those turnover issues and benefit from relatively weak schedule, which features only three daunting games: Ohio State, Iowa and a non-conference matchup with Oregon.
With six starters returning on offense, Nebraska will once again aim to put up big numbers on the arm (and legs) of the aforementioned Tommy Armstrong. The key with his development will be to limit mistakes, feel comfortable with his check-downs and above all else, remain healthy. If Armstrong can do that, he has strong depth at both running back and wide receiver, which can only serve to benefit from the return of De’Mornay Pierson-El.
Defensively, Nebraska must do a better job limiting points per game (27.8 in 2015) and yards per play (5.9 in 2015). And while some of blame for points allowed can, again, be attributed to their minus-12 turnover margin, the same can not be said for allowing 5.9 yards per clip.
The back seven will likely handle their own for Nebraska, so it’s the improvement up front along their revamped defensive line that will need to come through. If they can do a better job rushing the passer and a better job setting the edge, Nebraska could very well surprise in the Big Ten.
4. Auburn Tigers, SEC
Heavily-hyped a year ago, the Tigers fell flat on their faces, finishing the 2015 season with a record of 7-6. As a result, expectations are not very high entering 2016.
Of course, we’ve seen this story before. Auburn finished 3-9 in 2012 and had been completely written off in 2013 before erupting on an unexpected journey all the way to the BSC National Championship Game.
For whatever reason, it seems like Auburn and head coach Gus Malzahn thrive on being the underdog. And needless to say, they’ll be exactly that in 2016.
The Tigers will enter the season unranked, facing uncertainty at the quarterback position and having dismissed running back Jovon Robinson as the result of disciplinary issues. But the one luxury they do have is a solid defense that will likely keep them competitive in every game — even against the other SEC West powerhouses.
Auburn will also benefit from opening the season with five straight home games, including the season kickoff on Sept. 3 against Clemson. And of the three top-10 teams they’ll face, only one of them will be an away game (at Alabama on November 16).
While the Tigers aren’t likely to reach the College Football Playoff in 2016, there’s enough reason to believe they’ll out-perform many of the last place predictions and create some waves in the SEC.
An eight-win season and a bowl game are not entirely out of the question.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys, Big 12
After starting 10-0 last season, Oklahoma State suffered three consecutive embarrassing losses to Baylor, Oklahoma and Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl that have subsequently dropped their stock in 2016. But with 17 total starters returning and five of their first six games coming at home, things could be set up for the Cowboys to shake off the demons of 2015 and finally get over the hump.
Of course, getting over that hump has been and will be the biggest issue for Oklahoma State.
Can the Cowboys rise to the occasion down the stretch and become a top-15 team or will they once again be relegated a top-25 standing? Games against Texas Tech, who could also surprise in 2016, TCU (preseason No. 13) and Oklahoma (preseason No. 3) will ultimately be what determines that.
With such a successful franchise, a top-25 finish is expected, but that’s not the kind of “surprise” we’re looking for out of Oklahoma State this time around. Rather, the surprise will be resurrecting the sort of promise that surrounded the program from 2010-2013.
With the Cowboys’ passing attack likely to again be one of the best in the country, it will be up to Barry J. Sanders, a transfer from Stanford, to jump-start their struggling ground game. That added dimension will only make an already dangerous offense even more dangerous.
Defensively, Oklahoma State will want to reproduce what they did in 2015 in terms of turnovers, ultimately finishing the season with a plus-13 margin (+12 in victories). The more opportunities they can give their high-powered offense, the better their chances overall.
If the Cowboys can stay healthy, this might finally be the year they get over the hump and challenge Oklahoma for the Big 12 title.
2. Washington Huskies, Pac-12
In a bit if irony, the Huskies are the obvious dark horse in the Pac-12 as the 2016 season gets underway.
Washington finished ahead of Oregon in the final preseason polls, receiving eight first-place votes to the Ducks’ one. Of course, they fell well behind the Stanford Cardinals, who led the way with 24 first-place votes.
The question is, can Chris Petersen, who has experienced tremendous success in his coaching career, return himself and the program to winning ways?
After a 7-6 finish last season, it would be easy to be skeptical. However, their record aside, Washington finished in the top 25 of most advanced analytics and they appear to be trending in the right direction with 17 starters returning in 2016.
With All-America candidates Sidney Jones (cornerback) and Budda Baker (safety) leading the way defensively, the Huskies could once again top the Pac-12 in points allowed per game (18.8 in 2015). Meanwhile, offensively, sophomores Jake Browning, who impressed in his true freshman campaign, and running back Myles Gaskin will benefit from the return of wide receiver John Ross (knee injury).
For the Huskies, it all boils down to their games against Stanford and Oregon, who have long been a thorn in Washington’s side. If they can win both, we’ll all look back on the soft preseason hype and consider it justified.
1. Louisville Cardinals, ACC
Bobby’s Petrino’s Cardinals are a fringe team after winning six out of their final seven games last season, and will have an early opportunity to prove whether they are contenders or pretenders in the ACC. They got off to a great start on Thursday night with a 70-14 thrashing of Charlotte.
Already with a convincing win in hand, Louisville will take on projected College Football Playoff favorites, Florida State and Clemson, over the first five weeks of the season, hosting the Seminoles on Sept. 17 and then traveling to take on the Tigers two weeks later on Oct. 1.
With eight starters returning defensively, including linebackers Devonte Fields and Keith Kelsey, the Cardinals should again be ranked among the ACC’s best. And with three starters returning along the offensive line, it will afford sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who just completed his first full offseason under Petrino, some continuity he didn’t benefit from a year ago.
If Jackson, a dual-threat who finished last season with 2,800 combined yards (1,840 passing, 960 rushing) and 33 combined touchdowns (12 passing, 11 rushing), can continue his progression, Louisville’s offense may begin to catch up to its defense. The eight touchdowns he put up against Charlotte indicate Jackson may be on his way to a huge season.
Ultimately, the Cardinals are trending in the right direction, but it’s their early games against NCAA powerhouses that stand in their way. They’ll need to play much better against Florida State than they did a season ago, where they fell 41-21, and capitalize on the missed opportunities that cost them an early victory against Clemson (20-17).
