Working the Waiver Wire: Week 11 Free Agent Pickup Advice
Here is some advice on working the waiver wire in your fantasy league (for personal advice email larry at larrybrownsports.com):
Matchups to Avoid (at your discretion): Packers defense now that they’re healthy. Avoid Saints, Chargers, and Bears pass defense. Still avoid Steelers Giants, Jets run defense. Outside of Green Bay, there really is no true defense to avoid this year.
Matchups to Exploit (at your discretion): Houston, Buffalo, Jacksonville, New England and Dallas’ secondary. Buffalo, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Denver, and Indy’s run defense. Start a defense playing Carolina and Seattle (SF falls off the list now that Troy Smith is starting).
We recommended Santonio Holmes as our must-have player last week and all he did was break out with the game-winning touchdown in overtime as the Jets’ leading receiver. Still not sold on our talents? Josh Freeman and David Garrard were touted as one-week monster plays at quarterback. Freeman threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 19 yards. Garrard had 342 yards passing and two touchdowns including the hail mary, plus 35 yards on the ground. Simply put, we know what we’re doing. Keep that in mind as you read through the rest of the advice:
MUST-HAVE
Mario Manningham, WR, Giants – We gave him a special recommendation after word came out about Steve Smith’s pec injury and Manningham did not disappoint in his first start. 10 catches and a touchdown, he’ll be valuable as long as Smith is out.
Shonn Greene, RB, Jets – Demoted to second string at the beginning of the year, he’s now getting at least half the carries each game. I think he’ll be a common thread on many championship teams and will be a valuable contributor during fantasy playoffs. If someone dropped him, pick him up. Try to trade for him if you can (but don’t go overboard in what you give up).
Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys – Broke a screen pass for a 71-yard touchdown and showed what he can do in the passing game. He may become more involved in the offense with Garrett calling all the shots now. He’s already on most rosters, but if he’s available he could help your team down the stretch.
James Jones, WR, Packers – He had back-to-back 100-yard games after catching 8 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown a week ago and he looked great working with Aaron Rodgers. He’s available in most leagues.
Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets – Recorded his first 100-yard game of the season, breaking a couple of big plays Sunday. Back-to-back matchups against weak secondaries makes him an even more appealing play.
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions – Shaun Hill is back at quarterback and absolutely loves this guy. He has exceptional value in PPR leagues
*Make sure they’re not still available: Malcom Floyd
Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets – He has quality receiving options and is posting good yardage totals. Houston’s secondary is the worst in the NFL, giving up the most passing yards and touchdowns of any team. This is a dream matchup that only bad weather could ruin.
Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs – Arizona’s secondary is weak, so expect KC to get a few passing touchdowns early to gain the lead and spend the rest of the game running out the clock.
Ravens D, Saints D, Chiefs D – Baltimore is an obvious call on the road at Carolina, though Tony Pike may create less turnovers than Jimmy Clausen. I still don’t believe in the Seahawks so the Saints off the bye week should be well prepared for a good game. Kansas City got blasted by Denver, but they’re much better than that. Their defense has also been pretty strong at home so I think they’ll get a bunch of turnovers against Derek Anderson.
Louis Murphy, WR, Raiders – We like him so much we told you to pick him up last week despite Oakland’s bye. Even though they’re at Pittsburgh, we still like the playmaker from Florida.
Kellen Winslow, TE, Bucs – Bye weeks plus poor production may have caused him to be dropped. He’s too good not to be on a fantasy roster, and Josh Freeman should realize he’s too good not to be utilized more.
Seyi Ajirotutu, WR, Chargers – One of our one-week monster plays two weeks ago, he paid off with two touchdown catches. They’re back from a bye and Malcom Floyd should be healthy, but he has likely carved out a nice role in their offense.
Reggie Bush, RB, Saints – Bush is returning from his leg injury and should be a big part of the offense when he gets back. Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas aren’t healthy either.
Deion Branch, WR, Patriots – We’ve touted him before as a must-have guy, but then he got hurt and did nothing for New England. Now that he’s healthy again he’s producing.
David Thomas, TE, Saints – Had four catches for 45 yards and with Jeremy Shockey possibly out because of his ribs, Thomas could be a fill-in tight end if you need one.
Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins – He doesn’t find the end zone much, but he’s been very consistent getting catches and yards throughout the year. A good bet for at least five fantasy points per week in non-PPR leagues. A good amount of his points have come off flea flickers strangely enough.
Mike Thomas, WR, Jaguars – I wasn’t big on him midway through the season but David Garrard likes him a lot, and he’s been pretty consistent (hail mary or not).
Ben Watson, TE, Browns – He’s been a solid option all year and the Browns have good matchups ahead. Colt McCoy doesn’t throw for a ton of yards so that caps his upside.
Todd Heap, TE, Ravens – Joe Flacco is rolling and so is Baltimore’s passing game. Heap won’t grab a ton of yards, but he’s catching touchdowns.
Mario Haggan, LB, Broncos – Busted out with three sacks which was a surprise, but he’s been racking up lots of tackles lately, especially solo tackles.
*Make sure they’re not still available: Danny Amendola, Craig Dahl (for IDPs)
Jerome Harrison, RB, Eagles – Totaled 110 yards on 11 carries plus a fancy touchdown run against the Redskins. Don’t get excited — that’s LeSean McCoy’s gig, not his.
Keiland Williams, RB, Redskins – Ryan Torain and Clinton Portis should be back, so another three touchdown game for Keiland is unlikely.
Jason Avant, WR, Eagles – Everything went right for the Eagles on Monday night, but I wouldn’t get carried away with Avant. He’s a decent option if you need a few points, but the TDs will be few and far between. They have Maclin and D-Jax for that.
Kevin Walter, WR, Texans – He went several games without a target or a catch for Houston after being passed on the depth chart by Jacoby Jones. I won’t get excited just yet about Walter. It also doesn’t help that Houston’s passing game hasn’t been great.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots – Caught three touchdowns from Tom Brady in a Sunday night thrashing, but Aaron Hernandez is usually Brady’s primary tight end target. Gronkowski just happened to be a big part of the gameplan last week.
Deon Butler, WR, Seahawks – If 66 yards on Sunday was his season high and 63 of them came on one play, that’s enough to know you want to stay away.
Mike Goodson, RB, Panthers – Showed plenty of speed against a weak run defense in Tampa Bay, but with their other running backs likely to return plus poor matchups ahead, you can do much better.
Cadillac Williams, RB, Bucs – Busted out with a 45-yard touchdown run to ice the game late, but this gig belongs to LeGarrette Blount and there isn’t enough value for Caddy too.
Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks – Marshawn Lynch still gets the bulk of the carries and that’s the problem. Even if Forsett were their feature back, Seattle doesn’t have enough of an offense to make the spot valuable.
Javarris James, RB, Colts – Strictly the goal-line back, he’s too unreliable to use in fantasy. If Mike Hart or Joseph Addai return, he’ll be even more useless.
Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings – Battling back from a hip injury, he’s probably available on the waiver wire in your league. He may have some good weeks ahead but don’t get carried away.
Randy McMichael, TE, Chargers – Looked great catching two touchdowns from Philip Rivers in week nine at Houston. If Gates misses another game, McMichael is your man. Keep track of updates later in the week.
Anthony Fasano, TE, Dolphins – Generally not a big part of their offense, Tyler Thigpen may choose to look to him more. We need to see more of Thigpen before we can tell if that will be the case.
Photo Credit: Leon Halip/Getty Images, Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
