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Saturday, June 23, 2018

NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 7 – Doc Brown Special

Doc Brown has really picked things up and put together a nice 10-3 week last weekend against the spread. That was good enough to win the LBS Challenge picks pool. We’ll see if we can keep it rolling in week 7. Here are the picks, with analysis further below.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

You’ll notice a common theme with two of the games. We’re going against individuals making surprise starts. Let’s start with the Chiefs getting 4.5 at Oakland.

Kyle Boller is making the start for Oakland. The Raiders thought so little of him, they traded two extremely high draft picks for Carson Palmer. There’s a reason for that — he’s not trustworthy. He makes a lot of mistakes and turns the ball over way too much. That’s good news for the Chiefs. Sure the Raiders will try to run the ball all game against KC, but the Chiefs have done fine against the run their last few games. If they go too one-dimensional offensively, it will hurt them. Meanwhile, Matt Cassel has actually looked good his last few games. I think they pull the upset here.

Much like Kyle Boller, I don’t trust A.J. Feeley. The Rams struggled to score with Sam Bradford. Why would things be different with A.J. Feeley? This has been the worst offense in the league by far, and I don’t expect things to change against the Cowboys and their defensive pressure. Dallas meanwhile, has a strong passing game. They should light up St. Louis’ weak secondary.

For the last lock, you know I’m loving Tebow Time for Denver. The Broncos have finally made the change to Tim Tebow, which is smart — he’s a much better playmaker than Kyle Orton. Tebow certainly has his deficiencies, but I imagine him having more success against the Dolphins than Mark Sanchez did. His running makes him an effective weapon, and I certainly trust him to make plays in the fourth quarter more than Matt Moore. It’s Tebow Time, Tebow Time!

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