The brackets are finally here!
We can toss away all of our conjecture about who is in and who is out. No longer do we need to argue about where each team will go or what the match-ups might look like. We have an NCAA Tournament bracket to breakdown, rip apart, and then dissect even further.
But before we start picking games and looking for our champion, let’s peak back at the selection process and see who won and lost out on Selection Sunday.
1. Notre Dame and USC snubbed
Southern California had to have thought they were fairly safe after finishing second in the Pac-12 in the regular season, and then fighting their way to the conference tournament championship. The Pac-12 is a less deadly conference than the ACC, but it is hard to justify taking Syracuse, who was under .500 in ACC play, over the Trojans, who were 12-6 in conference.
USC won eight games versus KenPom top 100 teams away from their home floor. Syracuse won just three such games.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, was just 6-9 without All-American candidate Bonzie Colson in the lineup, thanks to an unfortunate injury. With Colson, the Irish won the Maui Invitational and looked impressive early on. Notre Dame even beat Syracuse, at the Carrier Dome, without Colson! To see the Orange in and the Irish out isn’t easy to explain. In fact, USC is a historically bad snub.
2. The top tier of the Midwest region is loaded
There’s a compelling argument to be made that Kansas, Duke, and Michigan State are three of the eight best teams in this tournament. Unfortunately for two of those teams, but luckily for those of us watching the tourney, all three of those schools are grouped in the same quarter of the bracket.
They are all full of NBA-level talent and are all coached by legends. The city of Omaha could be treated to a few classics in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight rounds.
Kansas has to feel safer knowing they can only face one of those two giants. Even for Michigan State, who has been ranked in the top 10 all season and is one of the nation’s most talented teams, beating Duke and Kansas in one weekend is a tough ask.
3. The committee certainly doesn’t have a recency bias
Some years, the committee goes overboard rewarding the hottest team in the month of March or a bubble team who won a few games in the conference tourney. This year, the committee really valued the entirety of the season, with two perfect examples.
Arizona State and Oklahoma looked like Final Four teams in November and December. Both were highly ranked and looked like serious contenders to make a deep run in March. They then both outright collapsed down the stretch.
Oklahoma has lost 11 of its last 15 games in the brutal Big XII. For the committee to not just put the Sooners in the field but to have them nowhere near the cut-line was a definite surprise. Oklahoma made the field comfortably as a 10 seed.
Arizona State was closer to missing the tournament and will play in the First Four early this week. The Sun Devils have lost five of six games and have not beat a top 200 team since February 10. Based on those results, it is odd to see the Sun Devils rewarded with a big over a team like Notre Dame.
4. Saint Mary’s bounced for its schedule
We see mid-major schools who were dominant in their conferences and feature strong win-loss records left out of the at-large picture all the time. It happened to Middle Tennessee this season when they failed to win the Conference USA Tournament.
Saint Mary’s spent most of the season ranked in the top 25 of the AP Poll and looked to be considered “more than a mid-major.” The Gaels won at Gonzaga and finished the season 28-5. When they lost in the WCC Tournament, there were whispers about them being on the bubble, though most projections saw them in the field.
Instead, the committee looked at the schedule Saint Mary’s played and determined it was not tournament-caliber. You can’t blame the committee here, as the Gaels coasted for the non-conference portion of the season. They played non-conference games outside of the state of California and their best win other than Gonzaga was 12th seeded New Mexico State. The Gaels played just three games against tournament teams all season. That’s not going to be enough to earn a bid when the bubble is as competitive as it was this year.
5. Louisville missed by just a moment
Though the committee didn’t identify Louisville as one of the first four teams out of the field, you have to feel for the Cardinals based on how their season ended. In the final week of the regular season, the Cardinals held a four-point lead on the nation’s top team, Virginia, with only one second remaining in the game and managed to lose via a bumbling series of mistakes.
Had they just sealed that game, their seeding the ACC Tournament would have been affected and you have to assume they’d be at least closer to the cut-line, if not in the tournament.
