We’re getting closer to Super Bowl XLV, yet the media frenzy still hasn’t begun. We’ve talked about the hair war between Clay Matthews and Troy Polamalu but how their effectiveness in the game may be limited, and whether or not the world is ready to see Ben Roethlisberger become a three-time Super Bowl champion.
One area we haven’t covered in too much detail yet is the betting line. One look at the NFL standings can make you wonder how a 10-6 team is favored over a 12-4 team, but that is the case.
The simple explanation is that the Packers have been fantastic lately, winning at Philly, blitzing the Falcons on the road, and beating the Bears in Chicago. They’ve never trailed in a game by more than seven points this season, and they haven’t loss by more than four. They’re just a really good team and the public has recognized it. One area that is much less certain is the Super Bowl prop bets.
Jimmy Traina brought my attention to some of the fun ones available on Thursday afternoon’s Hot Clicks. Here’s a sample of my favorites:
– Will a punt hit the scoreboard during the game? — Yes: 10/1
– Will a Steelers player do the Aaron Rodgers Championship Belt Celebration during the game?
Some of those are ridiculous and off-the-wall, but others are more standard. For instance, there’s action on who will be Super Bowl MVP, who will be the first player to score for each team, and what kind of score there will be to begin and end the game. To me, one of the best prop bets is that the first score will not be a touchdown. You can get +140 odds that the first score will be something other than a TD, meaning a field goal or safety would win you money.
One prop bet I like to avoid is who will be named Super Bowl MVP. There are two problems with it: one, the people voting for MVP usually don’t properly award the person most deserving, so you can pick a player who does well but the voters may screw it up. Two, the payoff for the people most likely to win the award are extremely low; Aaron Rodgers only pays +140, and Big Ben is +200. Only one person of the 20 or so potential MVPs will win it, so it’s just not worth your money. Then again, the reason most people are betting is for fun, so why should we spoil it? And if you want to know Doc an Del’s Super Bowl picks, stay tuned until next week when they’ll be revealed on Friday.
