Oddsmakers explain how sports without fans could impact betting lines
It remains unclear when competitive sports might resume, but one thing that seems certain is that most — if not all — events will take place without fans in the immediate future. That could make gambling on said events quite interesting.
Fans have a clear impact on the outcome of certain games. For NFL games, most professional handicappers factor about three points into home-field advantage. That means the home team would be favored by three points even if the two teams were evenly matched from a skill standpoint. Some of that has to do with not having to travel and the comfort of playing in a familiar place, but a lot of it is the energy and noise from the fans.
The Seahawks notoriously have one of the best home-field advantages in sports, and Las Vegas oddsmaker Lou Finocchiaro told Todd Dewey of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that Seattle’s usual home-field advantage would be cut in half if games are played in at empty CenturyLink Field.
“In the case of Seattle playing in Seattle with no fans, they’re going to negate maybe a four-point advantage and knock that down to a two-point advantage,” Finocchiaro said.
Not all teams have the same home-field advantage, as the environment is a lot different in a place like Seattle or New Orleans than it is in Miami. The formula is not exact, but for the most part handicappers say not having fans would negate at least two points for the home team.
Game totals could also be impacted. Circa Sports sportsbook manager Chris Bennett predicts that games would feature more scoring without crowd noise.
“Everyone says it will favor the offense because they can hear all the plays called out and there will be less false starts,” Bennett said. “But it will favor the defense, too, especially on the road at places like New Orleans and Green Bay, if they aren’t worried about the crowd noise.”
There will still be plenty of gambling on games when sports returns, as fans are starved for live games and events. Some things that have happened in the NFL this offseason have already resulted in significant odds shifts, and the potential to have games played in virtually silent venues could have an even greater impact.
