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Friday, November 28, 2014

NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 8 – Del’s Selections

With all the close spreads across the board last week when we released our Week 7 picks against the spread, Del had a feeling he was facing a challenge.  Unfortunately, he was right.  Del struggled once again and reverted to his early-season form, posting a disappointing 4-8-1 against the spread and finishing under .500 for the first time all season straight up at 6-7.  If we’re going to get above the 50-percent mark in the coming weeks, the bad weeks have to end now.  Week 8 features the exact opposite situation from Week 7, as most of the games have pretty significant spreads.  Hopefully, that will lead to opposite results for Del.  Here are Del’s Week 8 NFL Picks Against the Spread, with top-3 analysis after the chart per usual.  Be sure to check back later in the week for Doc Brown’s selections.

NFL PICKS WEEK 8
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

As expected, the high numbers in the spread column made selecting a top-3 seem fairly difficult this week, but here’s what I came up with. The first game that stuck out to me is the Panthers laying 3.5 to the Vikings at home. Carolina looked fairly convincing last week with a win over Washington while the Vikings shocked everyone — Green bay included — by hanging with the Packers. While the Panthers obviously aren’t anything close to the Packers, I think last week’s result for Minnesota was a product of a sleeping Green Bay team. It’s nearly impossible to get up for games against poor teams on the road, so the Packers did what they needed to win and nothing more. The spread for this game seems like a reaction to last week’s Minnesota-Green Bay spread and I expect the Panthers to cover with relative ease.

My favorite spread of the week is the Lions -3 at Denver. Unless you think Detroit is pretending, you have to believe they will come out swinging after losing back-to-back games the past two weeks. Jim Schwartz can not be happy with the way his team has played after a 5-0 start. On the other side, Tim Tebow’s amazing comeback victory has overshadowed how much the Broncos struggled in the first 50-plus minutes of Sunday’s game in Miami. Denver almost lost to a horrible Dolphins team and their offense was non-existent for almost the entire game. Issues like that aren’t fixed in a week simply because Tebow was able to erase a 15-point deficit.

Finally, I’m locking in the 49ers giving up 9.5 at home against the Browns.  After practicing Wednesday and being told he was clear for a full work load this weekend, Peyton Hillis had a setback.  He sat out Thursday’s practice after his hamstring flared up.  Even if he plays against the Niners it’s safe to say it won’t be at 100 percent.  Montario Hardesty has done a decent job spelling Hillis so far, but the Browns offense was completely stagnant against the Seahawks and Colt McCoy has been disappointing.  San Francisco is a team with a stingy defense that is bursting with confidence at the moment.  This game reeks of a blowout.



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