Cincinnati blew game despite 99.9 percent win probability
Wondering how big of a choke job Cincinnati executed against Nevada on Sunday? The stats are doing them no favors.
ESPN’s metrics which track win probability assigned Cincinnati a 99.9 percent win probability after they went up 65-43 with 11:17 left in the game.
— Darren Heitner (@DarrenHeitner) March 19, 2018
Gambletron had them at a 99.5 percent win probability:
According to Gambletron — which uses market betting numbers — Nevada’s comeback against Cincy was more unlikely than Patriots over Falcons, and it’s not even close https://t.co/GdNrqB4XUL pic.twitter.com/2uJn1RL0Fc
— Michael Lopez (@StatsbyLopez) March 19, 2018
Another chart shows how rapidly things changed:
Oh my God pic.twitter.com/GqKXyp4Kd5
— Mid-Major Madness (@mid_madness) March 19, 2018
What this tells us is pretty much what you saw: that was a 1 in 1,000 comeback by Nevada, at least.
Based on how good Cincinnati’s defense is supposed to be and how big their lead was with how little time remained in the game, the likelihood of Nevada coming back was next to nothing. Yet they won it 75-73.
Mick Cronin and his crew won’t live this one down for a long time.