16 teams are still standing in the NCAA Tournament, and that group will be whittled down to eight after Thursday and Friday’s games. In what has been a chaotic season, the dust is still settling in some parts of the bracket after a series of seismic upsets blew things wide open.
Just because some of the top teams are out, though, doesn’t mean the storylines are any less intriguing. In fact, they might be even more intriguing with the way some things have gone. Here are ten things to watch entering the round of 16.
1) Loyola Chicago tries to continue its Cinderella run
The Ramblers are one of the two double-digit seeds left on the board at this point in the tournament, but they are the biggest underdog left. After all, it’s hard to portray Jim Boeheim’s longtime ACC power Syracuse as a Cinderella, despite both schools being 11 seeds.
It’s taken a pair of last-second shots for the Ramblers to get this far, but Nevada will actually be the lowest-seeded team they’ll have been pitted against thus far. Tempo will be important — Nevada is elite offensively but not great defensively, so if the Ramblers can step up on defense and get what they want offensively, their Cinderella story may live to see another day.
2) SEC is out for respect
College football’s ultimate power conference has been viewed as “Kentucky and friends” in basketball, but things are shifting a bit this year. Though there have been some disappointing losses — what was that, Auburn? — the SEC sends two teams to the last 16 of the tournament. The number is only one fewer than the Big 12, the same as the Big Ten, and one more than the Big East.
Texas A&M, a preseason favorite finally living up to expectations, is the surprise outfit. They destroyed North Carolina in the second round and will face Michigan next. Kentucky, however, is the highest seed remaining in their region, and things look to have opened up perfectly for them to find their way into the Final Four. They will face Kansas State, and the winner of that game takes on the winner between Loyola Chicago and Nevada. Sending a team to the Final Four would be a coup for a league that has been overshadowed by several of its counterparts this season despite having some quality basketball teams in it.
3) Battered South Region is wide open
The top four seeds in the South are finished, with two of the leading Final Four picks out of the region (Virginia and Arizona) not even surviving their first game. What is left standing is a five seed out of the SEC in Kentucky, a nine seed out of the Big 12 in Kansas State, and the regular season champions of the Missouri Valley and Mountain West in Loyola and Nevada.
One of the latter two will play for a Final Four spot, which would have seemed quite unlikely last week. Kentucky gets a good matchup in Kansas State and has to be considered the regional favorite at this point. But while John Calipari is battle-tested in March, his squad of freshman is less so.
Talent may yet win out — the Wildcats lead the region in that.
4) Stars needing to step up
Moritz Wagner was getting a lot of talk entering the tournament. The Michigan Wolverines were red-hot, and he looked like a candidate to really capture the country’s imagination. Instead, he has struggled on offense, scoring just 17 points in two games so far. Wagner has more to offer, and Michigan’s Final Four hopes may rest on it.
On the other side of the bracket, Kansas’s Devonte’ Graham came back to earth against Seton Hall after a dominant opening round performance. Against the Pirates, though, he came up with eight points on 1-of-7 shooting, a huge disappointment for the Wooden hopeful. Clemson plays tough defensively, so Graham will be in for a difficult test, but the Jayhawks need him to step up again to keep them moving.
5) One-and-done talent continues to enjoy the tournament
There used to be an adage that experienced upperclassmen was necessary to win a national championship. Perhaps that’s still true, but even if it is, it’s quite clear that some of the prominent one-and-done players have found the NCAA Tournament to their liking despite their lack of experience in the competition.
There’s Kentucky, of course. Sure, their region has fallen apart around them, but the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have looked great so far. Then there’s Duke. Sure, they have a senior leader in Grayson Allen, but super freshmen Marvin Bagley III and Gary Trent Jr. have been carrying the Blue Devils — and will probably continue to.
Who says experience matters?
6) Remaining top seeds look to survive round of 16
We’ve already lost top seeds Xavier and Virginia, while Kansas endured a bit of a scare in the round of 32 against a tough Seton Hall team. Things only get tougher from here for our two remaining No. 1s, as the Jayhawks face a tough Clemson team, while Villanova must fend off Bob Huggins’ famous “Press Virginia.”
The greater worry is probably for Kansas, which isn’t as strong a team as Villanova and had their fair share of issues with Seton Hall. The aforementioned Davonte’ Graham needs to step things up. Bill Self’s team has a lot of quality wins but also their share of head-scratching losses. Watch out for that game, especially with the way Clemson looked against Auburn.
7) Duke looking as strong as possible
Sure, the Blue Devils haven’t been truly tested yet. Iona was standard small-conference token opposition, while Rhode Island simply couldn’t match up with the talent and athleticism of Duke.
But that’s the problem — who can? There are only a handful of teams at most that could handle what Duke has to offer. Syracuse isn’t one of them — they’ve played elite defense in three games so far, but they won’t have faced anything like this since… well, they last faced Duke, who held them to a season-low 44 points in ACC play. It’s hard to see Duke being threatened at any point before the regional final — and maybe not even there if they keep playing to their potential.
8) Everything is going Gonzaga’s way
This really was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. They lost several key pieces from when they were national runners-up last year, but they had little trouble in WCC play — as usual — and skated into the tournament with a somewhat favorable draw. Xavier was the weakest top seed and they were basically the only prominent team from out west to be given a trip to the West regional.
That draw has only become more favorable. Xavier is out, and so is second-seed North Carolina. No. 3 Michigan is still hanging in there, but they haven’t been particularly impressive thus far and needed a miracle Jordan Poole shot just to see the second weekend. They could absolutely still get it together, but for now, Gonzaga has to be seen as the favorite in Los Angeles.
9) Purdue faces a tough test
The Boilermakers definitely felt the absence of Isaac Haas against a Butler team that they struggled with for good portions of the contest. The worst-case scenario nearly happened when Vincent Edwards teetered on the brink of massive foul trouble for much of the game, but he played a strong, disciplined contest, and Purdue survived by the skin of their teeth.
Things will only get tougher going forward, as Haas isn’t coming back, despite the best efforts of some unlikely people. With Keenan Evans looking healthier than he has in over a month, the Texas Tech Red Raiders look like they mean business. They have the guard play to trouble Purdue plus the interior presence to give a Haas-less Boilermaker team massive headaches. Matt Haarms will have to be at his very best for this one, as will Edwards.
10) Press Virginia faces an offensive juggernaut
Perhaps this isn’t Bob Huggins’ best defensive team, but Press Virginia is still no fun to play against. The West Virginia Mountaineers are also bolstered by senior guard Jevon Carter, who is playing some of the best basketball of his career. His team has easily dispatched two double-digit seeds on the way to the Sweet 16.
Villanova’s guard-heavy lineup will have to control the ball here. As noted, this is not the best West Virginia defense we’ve seen in recent years, and teams have found success shooting the ball against the Mountaineers. If Villanova can avoid turnovers, they should win. If we get a vintage West Virginia defensive performance, though, all bets are off.
