Monday night’s title game between North Carolina and Gonzaga will offer a variety of exciting things to watch. The Tar Heels are one of college basketball’s elite programs, while Gonzaga is a Cinderella-turned-power. There are star guards, big men who will clash, and a fascinating battle of wits between Roy Williams and Mark Few. There are a few storylines worth watching that aren’t necessarily the headline, though, and here are a few things to keep in mind ahead of tipoff. Consider these the X-factors that could help determine the game’s outcome.
1) North Carolina’s championship game experience
The Tar Heels have a rare and unique advantage heading into the championship.
Of the eight players on the roster who saw double-digit minutes against Oregon, six played in last year’s National Championship loss against Villanova. A seventh, Luke Maye, did not play, but was part of the roster. Only freshman Tony Bradley is completely new to this environment.
On the other side of things, this is the first Final Four that the Gonzaga program has ever reached.
Playing against and beating South Carolina will help, but a title game is a rare occasion with unique pressure. North Carolina’s veteran team, laden with juniors and seniors, knows that and has coped with that. Gonzaga’s players surely know it, but they have yet to face it first-hand.
It’s anyone’s guess what happens if they get off to a rough start or struggle to play their game.
2) Gonzaga’s depth advantage
On the other hand, Gonzaga has something to offer themselves — depth.
Five Bulldogs players average at least 10 points per game. Zach Collins, arguably the team’s best player in terms of pure talent, comes off the bench. It allows them some flexibility in case Przemek Karnowski finds himself in foul trouble, or Nigel Williams-Goss isn’t proving as effective as he can be.
One of the team’s biggest weapons all season long has been its balance.
It’s not that North Carolina can’t play deep — they’re certainly able to bring good players off their bench — but they’ve been reliant on Justin Jackson and Joel Berry to score. Kennedy Meeks has stepped up during the tournament as well, but if one or more of those guys are contained, it gets harder for the Tar Heels to cope.
Gonzaga has less trouble covering for a struggling star.
3) North Carolina’s outside shooting
Oregon is a good, but not elite defensive team, and the Tar Heels looked completely out of sorts, shooting 37 percent against the Ducks and going long stretches of the game without a field goal at times. Much of their success came own low, where they were able to use their superior size to bully the Ducks into submission. Meeks’ 11-of-13 performance is evidence of that.
North Carolina will not find it as easy against Gonzaga.
The Bulldogs led the country in defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. In Karnowski and Collins, they have not one, but two big men who can go toe-to-toe with North Carolina’s superior size. Oregon didn’t have that, which was a big reason UNC bludgeoned them on the boards late to secure the victory. It’s going to be far tougher to do that against a bigger and better Gonzaga unit, which means they might need some jumpers to fall.
The Tar Heels aren’t really a jump-shooting team, and if Gonzaga can reduce them to that, they stand a really good chance.
4) Gonzaga’s Zach Collins
While Collins has been making an impact for Gonzaga all season, Saturday’s win served as something of a national introduction. After 14 points, 13 rebounds, and six blocks, the freshman got a lot of attention and saw his name climb up draft boards, potentially entrenching him firmly within the NBA lottery.
On Monday, he will face his biggest test yet.
North Carolina has excellent size and strength inside, led by the 6-foot-10 Meeks. Collins hasn’t faced anyone quite like Meeks all season. The senior will be playing in his final game as a Tar Heel, and he’s been coming up big as his college career winds down — he grabbed 17 rebounds against Kentucky and score 25 points with another 14 boards in the win over Oregon. He will be looking to end his college career with a title, while Collins — and Karnowski — will have to be in top form to deny him.
5) The chip on North Carolina’s shoulder
This somewhat goes back to the first point, but it’s a huge one that won’t manifest itself in the matchups and statistics. This North Carolina team is extremely motivated. They lost last year’s title game on a buzzer-beating Kris Jenkins three-pointer, and from day one of this season, they’ve been determined to right that wrong.
The Tar Heels have had their share of shaky moments in this tournament. They nearly lost to Arkansas in the second round, they needed a dramatic buzzer-beater to knock off Kentucky after what nearly became a crushing blown lead, and then they outrebounded Oregon late through sheer force of will to get their shot at atonement. They have pulled out close game after close game, even after they looked like they were going to fall short at times.
Gonzaga will be motivated too, make no mistake, but these Tar Heels players have been waiting a year for this moment.
