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Friday, October 24, 2014

Grading the Mock Drafts: Pro Football Weekly, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock Got the Most Right

We see so much of these draft experts during February, March, and April it could make our heads explode (if not theirs). Turns out, the three most well-known draft experts might actually have their jobs because they’re better than just about everyone at what they do. When comparing the mock drafts of Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay of ESPN with Mike Mayock’s of NFL Network, Sporting News’ War Room, Don Banks’ at SI, Pro Football Talk’s, Jay Glazer and Peter Schrager’s of FOX Sports, five experts from CBS Sports, Pro Football Weekly’s, and National Football Posts, PFW, McShay, and Mayock all had the best.

Pro Football Weekly’s mock draft blew everyone out of the water getting an absurd 15 of 32 correct. Todd McShay was the best individual expert of the mock drafts I reviewed, nailing eight first-round picks on the nose, and essentially three others (he had the Broncos’ 12 and 18 selections correct, just in reverse order, and the Bucs taking Josh Freeman). National Football Post got 10 right and essentially one other (Freeman to TB). Mike Mayock had 10 exactly right from the first-round, just like NFP. Kiper got eight right and essentially one other with the Bucs taking Freeman at 19. Rob Rang, Chad Reuter, Clark Judge, and Pro Football Talk all had seven picks right in the first-round but didn’t have any other picks “essentially right” they way Kiper and McShay did. Top information guys like Mike Lombardi from NFL Network and National Football Post, and Don Banks at SI only got two first-round picks right. Jay Glazer and Peter Schrager at FOX only had five and three, respectively.

Furthermore, two “expert drafts” had Everette Brown going in the top 10. He went 43rd overall to the Panthers. Some dumbass articles just looking to pick on people say that McShay, Mayock, and Kiper have no idea what they’re doing because they got as many wrong as they did. In order to judge these, you have to look at success rates like batting averages or NBA field goal percentages. PFW blew everyone away batting .469. Mayock and NFP were next at .313, but McShay and NFP essentially went .344. When you figure that most people got well under 20% right, these guy’s predictions look a whole lot better. Let’s ease off them, please.

Special thanks to LBS contributor The Driver for help on this project.

UPDATE: A couple of Danish guys tell me they beat almost all the experts.



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