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Saturday, June 23, 2018

NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 10 – Del’s Selections

We knew Del needed to pick up the pace in week 9 in order to turn things around for the second half of the season, and that’s exactly what happened. Del cashed in with his best week of the season against the spread, finishing with a solid 9-5 that included a perfect 3-0 in the top-3 selections. The ATS percentage remains below 50, but the good news is Del is continuing to kill it with the top-3 and trending in the right direction overall.  Without further ado, here are Del’s Week 10 NFL Picks, with analysis of the locks after the sheet.  As usual, don’t forget to check back later in the week when Doc Brown makes his selections.

(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)

Like last week, I’d rather wait until all the lines are released to complete the top-3, so until the line on the Philly-Arizona game is posted I’ve only selected two teams. The first of those two is Pittsburgh laying 3 points at Cincinnati. Are the Bengals underrated? Absolutely, but this is the week that we really get a chance to see if Cincinnati is a playoff contender. The Steelers know they can’t afford to lose back-to-back games to divisional opponents in what could be the toughest division in football. They allowed the Ravens to come into Heinz Field and beat them on their own turf, so now they have to get back on track the hard way. I expect the Steelers defense to have a sour taste in their mouth after Joe Flacco’s game-winning drive last weekend. They should take care of business and win by a touchdown on the road.

The second team I like this week, despite the fact that they are on the road in a tough environment, is the Ravens. Normally I would shy away from an offense like Baltimore’s traveling across the country to face a formidable Seattle defense, but Flacco and company appear to be hitting their stride. Anquan Boldin has turned into one of the better possession receivers in the game and Flacco is making the throws he has to make. Ray Rice has been consistent all season and the rest of the Ravens offense appears to be following suit. If the line hadn’t come down to 6.5 from 7, I would be hesitant. I’ll take Baltimore’s defense and newly energized offense to cover a 6.5-point spread with ease against an offense like Seattle’s.

Now that the Arizona-Philly line is posted, I’ve decided on the third top-3 for this week. I’m taking the Patriots on the road against the Jets. My gut feeling is that the Jets will win, but the gambler in me is screaming, “Do you really think Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are going to lose three straight regular season games?!” The Jets will bring pressure at Brady and New England’s defense has been horrible, but I have to think the Pats will be more prepared than ever having lost two straight games.

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