It is a foregone conclusion that Fernando Mendoza will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft by the Las Vegas Raiders. But there is one person who, so far, does not see Mendoza as a slam-dunk top pick.
ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, who is a former NFL quarterback, has been reviewing game film of Mendoza. Orlovsky said on ESPN Thursday that in reviewing film of Mendoza’s first eight games for the 2025 college football season, there were some areas that did not stand out.
“I’m through eight games now. And through eight games, you see good, but there’s a lot of underwhelming. … there’s not a ton of big-time throws. There’s a lot of clean pockets. There’s a ton of RPOs and back-shoulder fades. … And then there’s moments where you see, hey, that first read’s not there, he’s spooked with his feet and becomes a runner unnecessarily. If you take away the RPOs and then those back-shoulder fades, there’s just not a ton of balls over the middle of the field. Very good decisions — I think that’s his super power is he avoids negative plays. But you’re looking at a guy that you’re saying, “first pick, first pick.” I think through eight games, Ty Simpson’s tape from Alabama through the first eight games at Alabama I think is significantly more impressive than Fernando Mendoza’s,” Orlovsky said.
Orlovsky acknowledged that he doesn’t have the full sample size yet and has only studied half of Mendoza’s season. His opinion could change after watching Indiana’s final eight games, which is when Mendoza was arguably at his best. But after watching the first eight games, Orlovsky did not come away saying that Mendoza is a definite No. 1 overall pick.
"Ty Simpson’s tape from Alabama, through the first eight games of the season, is significantly more impressive than Fernando Mendoza’s" – Dan Orlovsky pic.twitter.com/78O9rTt14t
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) February 26, 2026
Mendoza played the 2025 season for Indiana after spending the prior two years at Cal. He completed 72 percent of his passes for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He also rushed for 276 yards and 7 touchdowns as the Hoosiers went 16-0. Mendoza also won the Heisman Trophy.
As for Simpson, he is regarded as the No. 2 quarterback prospect in the 2026 draft behind Mendoza. There is nothing wrong with Orlovsky sharing his opinion on the two players, even if he is still forming his opinion.
