The Seattle Seahawks have had a busy week. On April 16th, they finalized the big contract with Russell Wilson. When you pay the quarterback the big bucks, you have to make decisions on who else to pay, and on Tuesday, one of those decisions involved trading away the team’s leading pass rusher, Frank Clark, rather than pay a long-term deal.
This is a big draft for Seattle. They now have two first-round picks in the twenties, and can decide to address replacing Frank Clark’s production with a first-round talent on a cheaper deal, and also look at replacing Earl Thomas early in the draft.
This draft actually sets up nicely for deferring getting a safety until the later first round pick, and acquiring a pass rusher either with the 21st overall pick, or by a slight trade-up if necessary. The Chiefs on the other hand, probably were not going to have an impact pass rusher fall to them at 29th overall.
I will also point out that, by the traditional value chart, the 21st and 29th pick should be equal to about the 7th or 8th overall pick (and by my wins-added value chart, those two picks are worth between the 6th and 7th overall picks). So Seattle has the draft capital to make a big move and get one of the top pass rushers if they want to do so, and can make a deal for any number of them that could fall. Will they want to? Seattle only had four picks in the entire draft before this trade, and none until pick #84 after that 21st overall selection (they have now swapped pick #84 for pick #92 as part of the Clark trade as well). If you are Seattle, you now want to see teams make big moves for quarterbacks that also drives the draft board down slightly, if you want to now stand pat at 21, get the pass rusher, then trade down again with the just-acquired pick.
Let’s take a look at who might be available, and where, for Seattle (and you can see my full mock draft based on average draft position and need here).
Josh Allen is probably going to be gone in the first five picks. But Seattle has to be prepared for contingencies. If someone jumps for a second quarterback early, if there is a surprise pick in the first five slots, Allen could still be on the board when the Giants come up at #6. Dave Gettleman has never traded down and it’s not really his M.O., but if Allen is there heading into picks 6 through 8, Seattle could get it done with an elite replacement.
Sweat is a wildcard. On average, when I examined the mock drafts, he was going at pick number 11, with a large variation. He could go off the board by those same range of picks where Seattle could target moving up for Allen, or if they want to exercise a little patience, he could still be on the board as it gets past Denver and to Cincinnati at 11 and Green Bay at 12. Green Bay could be a team very amenable to a move down to still target receivers and tight ends. A trade of the 21st, 29th, and 125th pick for the 12th and 44th overall picks could get it done. Getting an impact pass rusher while getting a mid-second round pick would put them in prime range to still address the safety position at the point in the draft where it makes the most sense.
Brian Burns and Clelin Ferrell are currently occupying that mid-first round tier among pass rushers. Both are going off the board on average in the same range, Burns at 18.2 and Ferrell at 18.9. Burns was available at pick 21 in one-third of the mock drafts I studied, and Ferrell in 28% of them. One of the two of them was available in just over half the mock drafts. So, just by waiting, Seattle has a decent chance of landing one. Those chances go up if there is a run at quarterback or offensive line by pick 18. Seattle also has the ability to watch the board develop into the teens, and then once one of them comes off the board, move for the other. They can probably swing a deal by including the fourth round pick to move up into the mid-to-late teens. Minnesota, for one, is a team that should be amenable to a move.
