Report: Gerrit Cole deal likely to exceed $300 million

Stephen Strasburg’s decision to sign a seven-year, $245 million contract with the Washington Nationals appears to have significantly impacted the market for fellow free agent Gerrit Cole.

Cole, the best pitcher on the market, is now expected to fetch over $300 million, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Cole’s final payday is now expected to exceed $300 million — and not by a penny or two. Nine years at $324 million is $36M on avg per year and that is probably not a bad over/under. What Strasburg signed for would move me to take the over on Cole.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 9, 2019

The key here is the length of the deal. Strasburg’s $35 million AAV is a new record for a pitcher, but Cole is likely to beat that figure. He also stands a decent chance of getting a longer deal than Strasburg, as Cole is still only 29 and doesn’t have much of an injury history. Even at the same AAV as Strasburg got, an eighth year would take the financial value of the deal to $280 million, and Cole is likely to get a good deal more than that. A ninth year would probably take the deal closer to $350 million, though there’s no indication that’s on the table at this point in time.

Reports indicate that Cole is likely to sign this week, with the Yankees, Dodgers, and Angels cited as being involved in the sweepstakes. One thing is clear: the rumored offer the Yankees were going to put on the table is not going to be nearly enough to get their man anymore.