The good news is there’s nowhere to go but up. It goes without saying that Del is not proud of the picks he has made through the first four weeks of the NFL season. While the Top-3 would still have you in the green if you were riding those, picking at 40 percent against the spread overall is not going to cut it over a 16-week season. Will this be the week that Del gets back on track? Let’s just say I’m feeling good about plenty of games. What that means, we will soon find out. Here are Del’s Week 4 NFL Picks with analysis after the chart.
(ATS = Against the Spread, SU = Straight Up)
Immediately you’ll notice that there are only two top-3 selections at the moment. I will provide a third top pick later this afternoon, but as of right now I can’t decide between Atlanta at -4.5 over Seattle or Buffalo at -3 in Cincinnati. The reasons for Buffalo should be obvious with the way their offense has looked this year. As for Atlanta, it’s do or die for them with a favorable match-up on the road. If the Falcons want to turn their 1-2 start around, now would be a great time to do it — even in the hostile environment the Seahawks throw at you. Verdict: Atlanta
They may be on the road and away from their comfortable indoor stadium, but the Saints are a much better team than the Jaguars. The Jags hung with Carolina on the road last weekend, but some sloppy conditions may have made the final score of that game closer than it actually was. If the Jets can beat Jacksonville by 30 and the Panthers can win by 6, it would stand to reason that the Saints offense should blow them out of the water.
The other team I like is the Giants -1 traveling to Arizona. The Cardinals are off to a very shaky start and the Giants are just beginning to find their groove. Hakeem Nicks may play in this one, but Eli Manning lit it up through the air against the Eagles without him. New York’s confidence should be sky high after the victory over Philly — Vick or no Vick.
A couple of other notable teams that I like are the Lions +1.5 at Dallas and the Patriots -4.5 at Oakland. The Lions have been a machine on offense and came up with a big overtime victory last weekend to remain undefeated. While it was a big win for Dallas, the Cowboys struggled against Washington and had to grind it out for 60 minutes. At this point I would say the Lions are a better team than the Redskins, and the Cowboys are still banged up on offense. As for New England, Bill Belichick hates to lose. The Pats usually respond well after a loss so I expect Belichick to have his defense prepared to shut down McFadden. Brady will be looking to rebound in a huge way from a rare four-interception performance.
