10 keys to watch for the NFL conference championships

The two teams that will meet in Super Bowl LII will be determined on Sunday, with the conference championship games set to kick off. While Tom Brady’s presence isn’t a surprise, most wouldn’t have believed it if you’d told them six months ago that Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Nick Foles would be the other three quarterbacks vying for a Super Bowl berth.

What does each team need to do to pull out a victory? What are the key factors to watch in each game? Here are ten to keep your eye on as things kick off on Sunday:

1) Which journeyman quarterback will reign supreme in Philadelphia?

It would be safe to say that, when Case Keenum and Nick Foles were playing together on the 2015 St. Louis Rams, even they wouldn’t have believed it if someone told them they were going to be facing off in an NFC Championship Game a little over two years later. That’s where we are, though, and the winner of the game could ultimately hinge on which quarterback outperforms the other. Keenum looked better last week as the Vikings beat the Saints, but Foles has held his own, overcoming some late-season struggles to see off the Atlanta Falcons. They’ll both be facing tough defenses, so this should be a close one. It may come down to whoever makes the fewest mistakes.

2) Can the Vikings avoid a hangover effect?

The dramatic 29-24 win over the New Orleans Saints felt like a championship, but it wasn’t. It simply gave the Vikings the right to play for one, and as Mike Zimmer alluded to, they must leave that game in the past and refocus quickly. Minnesota nearly blew a big lead and lost to New Orleans, and they’ll be facing a much less forgiving defense in Philadelphia. Keenum made a few very shaky throws during that second half that he’ll have to clean up. If Minnesota spends too long reveling in a truly incredible victory, Philadelphia could gain an advantage.

3) Which of the NFC’s two best defenses will have the better day?

In terms of points allowed, the Eagles have the NFC’s second best defense — with only the Vikings besting them. All the pieces are in place here for a tantalizing defensive struggle, and pretty much everyone is expecting a tight, low-scoring contest. The Eagles will try to contain Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen with their solid secondary, but Minnesota’s defensive backfield — led by Xavier Rhodes — is better. Minnesota’s offensive line will have to hold up, but the Vikings boast an elite pass rush, too. Minnesota gets a slight edge here. If that translates to game action, they could pull off a road win.

4) Will either run game get going?

With two quarterbacks who don’t have elite track records going against two strong secondaries, these teams may look toward the running game to find any sort of advantage they can. Latavius Murray was okay for the Vikings against New Orleans, while Philadelphia’s two-headed monster of Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount were shaky and fumble-prone against the Falcons. Both defenses are sturdy against the run, but if either side can break off even one or two big plays on the ground, it could be a game-changer considering how hard-pressed both teams will probably be to pick up chunks of yardage.

5) The weather may not help the Eagles as much as they’d have hoped

The Vikings are an indoor team playing outside in mid-January. Usually, that would be a negative for them, but in terms of the weather, Philadelphia’s home field advantage may not be as sturdy as they would have hoped. Clear skies are forecast, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40s. That’s chilly, but considering this is Philadelphia in January, that’s much more forgiving than it could have been. If the Eagles were hoping the weather would give them some sort of pronounced advantage, they may come away disappointed.

6) Can the Jaguars limit mistakes again?

How did Jacksonville walk into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers? They played mistake-free football. The Jaguars didn’t run a single offensive play for a loss and didn’t turn the ball over once, and if they’re going to win at New England, it will probably take a similar performance. That means Bortles needs to be sharp enough to move the ball without turning it over, and Leonard Fournette is going to have to find room to run. That will be much easier said than done, but they’ve already shown themselves to be capable of it.

7) Don’t expect the Patriots to be as lackadaisical as the Steelers were

It’s rare that you see anyone from a losing team admit that they weren’t 100 percent focused on their opponent, but that’s exactly what one Steeler admitted after the Jaguars beat his team. The Steelers were so preoccupied with a revenge game against the Patriots that they overlooked and motivated the Jaguars. Bill Belichick won’t let his players make a similar mistake. The Patriots will be ready to play, especially with a Super Bowl spot on the line, which will add to the difficulty of this game for Jacksonville.

8) Tom Brady vs. the Jacksonville secondary will be a battle

Jacksonville’s defense was elite in 2017 for two big reasons — a defensive line that could put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and a secondary that could make it very hard for them to find openings. Both of those things will be big challenges for Brady. The likes of Jalen Ramsey will not be scared of Brady and will more or less dare him to throw it their way, but the savvy veteran has proven time and time again that he can overcome the best defenses. It is entirely possible that this face-off will decide the result. If Ramsey and the Jaguar defense can make Brady’s life difficult, all bets are off.

9) How powerful is Jacksonville against the world?

The Jaguars have made no secret that they are fueled by their doubters. They take motivation from opponents doubting them, experts picking against them, and the public writing them off. While the Patriots will likely be smarter about handing Jacksonville the sort of bulletin board material the Steelers gave them, the Jaguars will still be underdogs in Foxborough — as of Tuesday, New England was a nine-point favorite. Doubt is a powerful motivator, and the Jaguars will absolutely believe they can win this game. How powerful it will actually be remains to be seen.

10) The experience gap is still big

Experience does still matter in the NFL playoffs, and no one has more of it than Brady and the Patriots. This will be their seventh consecutive AFC championship appearance and Brady’s 12th. To date, he’s 7-4 in these games. The Jaguars definitely don’t have that experience. It remains to be seen how much that matters, but if it’s a close game and you need a big drive, who would you rather have calling the shots — Brady or Bortles? The question answers itself, and the Jaguars would probably like to ensure that it doesn’t come to that.