Can you really be an “expert” when it comes to predicting what will happen in the NCAA Tournament? If logic, reason and statistical analysis could predict the outcome of the most exciting playoff in sports, they wouldn’t call it March Madness.
Nevertheless, we here at LBS do our best to research the teams in the field and give you a better chance of winning a championship of your own. Oftentimes the way a team is playing heading into March is a good indicator of how they will perform in the Big Dance, which is why the 34-0 Kentucky Wildcats are the most popular pick to win it all.
Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if Kentucky ran the table. With that in mind, I still think there’s something to be said for teams who have faced adversity and dealt with tough losses. John Calipari’s team is so good that it has not experienced that. For that reason, I’m taking the run-and-gun Arizona Wildcats to upset Kentucky in the Final Four and cut down the nets in Indianapolis.
You can see my full 2015 NCAA Tournament brackets below, with analysis of each region after the screenshots. Click twice to see the large version:
Midwest Region
While nothing is certain in the NCAA Tournament, you’re probably just trying to be different if you think Kentucky isn’t winning this region. Kansas is probably the weakest and most inexperienced No. 2 seed in the tournament, and their confidence could be shaken after blowing a huge lead against Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament championship game. Like LB, I like Wichita State to upset Kansas in the Round of 32.
Wichita State was undefeated heading into the tournament last year and ended up being “rewarded” with a brutal draw. Most of the players from that team have returned this year, and they’ll undoubtedly be looking for revenge. The Shockers should be far more motivated than the Jayhawks, though I will admit betting against Bill Self in March is a bold move.
If you believe in momentum, Notre Dame is another team to watch in this region. The Irish upset North Carolina to win the ACC Championship and have to be feeling good about themselves.
West Region
I’m picking Arizona to win it all, so I have them emerging as champions of the West. In order to accomplish that, the Wildcats will likely have to get by a very tough Wisconsin team. Arizona relies on a more athletic style whereas the Badgers use their big men to dominate the low post. The Wildcats have struggled against teams that slow the pace of the game, which is why I’m slightly concerned Wisconsin could give them trouble.
But against almost everyone else, Arizona has been dominant.
Coming off a tough loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament championship game, North Carolina looks vulnerable. They’re inconsistent shooting the ball from outside and are prone to very cold stretches offensively. I wouldn’t be surprised if a confident Arkansas team — led by Bobby Portis — upsets the Tar Heels. However, I don’t envision either being much of a match for Wisconsin.
East Region
Villanova is one of those teams that I hate backing in the NCAA Tournament because it lives and dies beyond the 3-point line. Like so many Duke teams in recent years, one cold shooting day would likely end Villanova’s national championship hopes. The Wildcats are very experienced and have returned all of their core players from last year, so I still have them penciled into the Elite 8.
However, an experienced Northern Iowa team has been a popular Cinderella pick for good reason. They very rarely make mistakes, shoot well from the outside and typically play well on defense. If the Panthers ended up getting into a shootout with Villanova, they should have no problem keeping up. Don’t be surprised if they march their way to the Elite 8.
Oklahoma is another popular pick from a wide-open East Region because the Sooners have already beaten Villanova and several other tough opponents (Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas), but I don’t see them getting past Virginia in the Sweet 16. Virginia is an excellent defensive team who can slow opponents down and get them out of rhythm. That style of play is typically successful during the chaos of March, which is why I’ve chosen the Cavs as a Final Four team.
South Region
Duke has not played its best basketball in March during recent years, but this is the most talented team Mike Krzyzewski has featured in a while. The Blue Devils are young, but freshman Jahlil Okafor is a beast in the low post and plays beyond his years. His presence down low allows Duke to play inside-out on offense, which is something Coach K has always specialized in. I have Duke going to the national championship game and would not be stunned if they won it all.
One team that could give the Blue Devils some trouble is Gonzaga, which is a very big team that plays well defensively. However, I think the Bulldogs will struggle against a team like Iowa State, which loves to speed things up and is riding high after a huge comeback win over Kansas in the Big 12 tournament championship game. Iowa State can score points in bunches and is incredibly hard to stop when the confidence starts flowing.
Again, I’m picking Arizona to come away with a major upset over Kentucky in the Final Four. I think the Wildcats from Tucson can put pressure on their brothers from Lexington, and pressure is key against an undefeated team on a huge stage. Remember what UConn did to Kentucky last year? And if Arizona does beat the consensus top team in the tournament, is anyone going to stop them after that? I sure hope not.
