Everybody loves to be the one to call that big first round upset in March Madness. It may not win you the bracket pool, but it can certainly give you bragging rights and make you look very smart for spotting a lesser-known team that shocked the world.
So which teams might provide the shocks this year? Here are eight games that could very much produce a first-round upset in the 2019 NCAA Tournament.
(12) Liberty over (5) Mississippi State
The Flames have talent. They boast an above-average offense, led by a balanced attack from Scottie James and Caleb Homesley. They went 14-2 in the Atlantic Sun, beating a very talented Lipscomb team twice — a team that some felt deserved at-large consideration. Their biggest challenge will be to hold off the Mississippi State offense, but the Bulldogs were a .500 team in the SEC and haven’t been consistent winners since conference play started. This one is worth watching.
(11) Belmont over (6) Maryland
Belmont will have to see off Temple in the First Four to even get to this game, but they’re going to be a very popular pick to win at least one game in this tournament, if not more. A First Four team has reached the Round of 32 in every tournament since the field expanded to 68. The Bruins, which made the field as a surprising at-large, look well-equipped to answer the bell this year. Maryland has been talented but inconsistent, and crashed out early in the Big Ten tournament. Belmont boasts an excellent offense that leads the nation in assists, and Dylan Windler is an excellent player. They can absolutely win multiple games in the tournament.
(12) Oregon over (5) Wisconsin
The Ducks come into the tournament very hot after winning the Pac-12 Tournament, flashing some suffocating defense en route to the title. In Payton Pritchard, they also have the kind of talent that can carry a team in the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin has talent, and the Ducks will have to find a way to neutralize Ethan Happ, but the big man also happens to be a terrible free-throw shooter. That can be exploited. Oregon’s defense and great form may be key here.
(11) Saint Mary’s over (6) Villanova
Villanova will not be an easy out, coached by a two-time champion in Jay Wright and with some returning experience. Saint Mary’s, however, proved with their win over Gonzaga that they can beat really good teams. KenPom ranks the Gaels as the No. 31 team in the country, a mere five spots behind the Wildcats. The Gaels can score, with Jordan Ford pouring in over 20 points per game. This will not be easy, but just ask Gonzaga what the Gaels can do to a team.
(12) New Mexico State over (5) Auburn
New Mexico State is a 30-win team with a coach in Chris Jans who could probably coach at a higher level. They’ve won 19 games in a row, and they gave fifth-seeded Clemson a very tough first-round game a year ago before ultimately falling to an 11-point defeat. A year of experience should do them good. Auburn is probably the toughest of any five-seed and fresh off an SEC Tournament title, so this is no slam dunk, but the Aggies are plenty good enough to make them sweat at minimum.
(10) Florida over (7) Nevada
Nevada has had a great season and lost just four games, but Florida is not really the best draw a seven-seed could get. The Gators lost some painfully close games in the SEC this season, but they came on late and very nearly claimed the SEC tournament title over Auburn. Florida has the talent to win this game, but the key for them will be closing out games and keeping Jordan Caroline and the Martins in check.
(13) UC Irvine over (4) Kansas State
A lot could depend on the availability of Kansas State’s Dean Wade here, and clarity on that might not come for a while. Either way, UC Irvine is no joke. They’re a 30-win team with excellent defense and rebounding, and they have the depth and experience that smaller teams typically need to make some noise at this level. This is by no means a guarantee, but the Anteaters could give Kansas State trouble, especially if Wade isn’t available.
(12) Murray State over (5) Marquette
This game is going to be a lot of fun. Marquette boasts one of the nation’s elite scorers in Markus Howard, but Murray State is the rare non-power team that can counter with a future NBA player of their own in the form of the outstanding Ja Morant. Morant and Howard will engage in a remarkable duel in this game, but Morant is certainly good enough to carry Murray State on his own. He might be the most exciting player in the entire tournament field, and as long as he’s playing, the Racers have a chance.
