Breaking down Kevin Durant’s potential free agent destinations
Los Angeles Lakers
Death, taxes, and Laker fans believing that they have a chance to sign LeBron, Durant, Carmelo, Anthony Davis, Michael Jordan, Derek Jeter, William Shatner, Sting, and George Washington’s ghost every single summer. Not much appears to have changed this year, except that maybe now that Kobe Bryant is retired, the Lakers might be hellbent on maintaining their superstar equilibrium. Still, what about them would even be attractive to Durant?
He would be staying in the West just to join a rebuilding team full of young rookies and sophomores still learning the ropes of the Association. Sure, they’re one of the most storied squads in basketball, but the Laker brand is in the toilet after a repugnant last three seasons. Can Durant really afford to take on the lead role (or in reality, the burden) of rebuilding it? Shouldn’t his focus right now be on Larry O’Brien instead of on Larry Nance Jr.? While it might be rad to see Durant share the court with a younger, glossier, rawer version of himself in newest Lakeshow addition Brandon Ingram, he probably has about as much chance of suiting up for the Lakers next season as Jack Nicholson does.
Odds: 150/1
Houston Rockets
The way things stands at the moment, the Rockets’ pitch to Kevin Durant might not be much more than “Come reunite with your old buddy James Harden! He has really cool facial hair!” Truth be told, Houston just doesn’t have a whole lot to offer to the Durantula. GM Daryl Morey’s “analytics or GTFO” mentality can be off-putting to some, while it’s not clear how receptive Durant would be to playing under a gimmick head coach like Mike D’Antoni. And it’s not like the Rockets have been the shining paragon of stability and exceptional team chemistry over the last few years either.
Facing an uncertain future thanks to high roster turnover and the question marks that come along with the territory for a team who only qualified for the playoffs on the final day of the regular season last year, Houston probably earns a respectful but firm “No, thank you” from Durant. Harden will try to recruit him nonetheless, but like The Bearded One’s efforts to find either a razor or a care to give on the defensive end, he will probably fail.
Odds: 125/1
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers surprised many by appearing on Durant’s recent six-team short list, but they may have more of a shot than most people would believe.
Doc Rivers has lacked a true difference-maker at the small forward position since his Boston days with Paul Pierce. And too much of the Clippers’ offense has become dependent on the playmaking abilities of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. How lethal might Lob City look with a player like Durant, a guy who is truly in a league of his own when it comes to creating his own shot, being on the receiving end from CP3? Of course, Durant’s talent is such that the same could probably be said every other team in the NBA. And the math doesn’t quite add up for the Clippers, who would likely only be able to land Durant by acquiring him via a sign-and-trade for Griffin, himself a player with deeply rooted connections to the Oklahoma City area.
It’s worth noting that the Clippers were once said to be open to the notion, but it just doesn’t seem entirely plausible that they would actually pull the trigger on such a blockbuster. The Clippers are about to enter Year Six of the Paul-Griffin-DeAndre Jordan trio, yet Rivers still lacks the information he needs to positively determine if this core can legitimately contend in the West at full strength (thanks to postseason after postseason felled by freak injury or red herrings in the shape of Donald Sterling). For now, let’s stash the Clippers’ bid for Durant away in the “I wouldn’t be entirely surprised, but…” category.
Odds: 20/1
Miami Heat
Come on, KD! What more could you possibly want out of a potential free agent landing spot? The exquisite South Beach weather? First-rate organizational infrastructure? A convenient lack of income tax in the state of Florida? An established culture of winning? The opportunity to kiss one of Pat Riley’s nine championship rings? The seductive embrace of DJ Khaled? Miami has it all!
Well, except for practicality perhaps. Nine of the fifteen players the Heat had on their roster last season are not under contract for next year, meaning that the team has other priorities on their plate. It will, in all probability, take a max contract to retain shot-blocking magistrate Hassan Whiteside (who Riley has maintained is Miami’s No. 1 focus this offseason), and it’s doubtful that Dwyane Wade, who has taken pay cut after pay cut over the years, would be amenable to taking yet another one to accommodate the Heat’s lofty free agency goals once more.
Still, the Heat are all but certain to put together a spirited campaign for Durant as they actually have a need at the forward position with Luol Deng and Joe Johnson both coming off the books and Justise Winslow not ready to take on a lead offensive role just yet. And if there’s one piece of NBA wisdom that I’ve picked up in my times as a hoops enthusiast, it’s to never underestimate the pull of Godfather Riley. That combined with all the other South Beach gravy seems like more than enough to make the Heat the favorites to sign Durant should he choose to exit the Western Conference.
Odds: 12/1
San Antonio Spurs
One of the fundamental principles of basketball dogma is that the Spurs aren’t fair. They weren’t fair in 1997 when what seems like the lone losing season in team history rewarded them with the No. 1 overall pick (some dude named Tim Duncan) for their troubles. They weren’t fair when they found international gem after international gem at a bargain cost on draft day year-in and year-out (including Manu Ginobili at No. 57 overall in 1999 and Tony Parker at No. 28 overall in 2001). They weren’t fair when they swung a draft-night trade for a relatively unknown prospect by the name of Kawhi Leonard in 2011 and promptly developed him into Optimus Prime. They weren’t fair last year when they somehow landed the crown jewel of the 2015 free agent class in LaMarcus Aldridge, then convinced veteran talents like David West, Kevin Martin, and Andre Miller to sign with them for pennies. And as Durant’s free agency looms this summer, surprise, they’re still not fair.
The Spurs seem to be serious about a pursuit of Durant, and for his part, Durant seems to be listening, having granted San Antonio one of the first three official recruiting meetings with him. The Spurs are arguably the best-run franchise in all of professional sports, and their knack for consistency in contention has to be mighty appealing to Durant at this juncture of his career. Gregg Popovich is also probably the single most respected figure in the league today, and to sign with the Spurs is to virtually guarantee yourself 60-plus wins and a top-three seed in the Western Conference.
The proposition is not without its pitfalls, however. In Aldridge and Leonard, the Spurs already have two other All-Star forwards in their starting lineup, meaning that if Durant comes over, at least one of the three may have to play out of position or even come off the bench. And while the Spurs’ starting lineup devolved into more one-on-one play than we’re accustomed to seeing out of them last year, they still ran the fewest isolation plays in the league (per NBA.com) which could make the transition for the hero ball-accustomed Durant somewhat laborious. It’s also likely that San Antonio will have to part with a core piece like a Danny Green or a Boris Diaw in order to create the necessary fiscal room for Durant. But Durant has publicly stated his admiration of West for taking less money to sign with San Antonio, even going so far as to say, “Money isn’t everything.” If that’s indeed true for No. 35 himself, the Spurs can certainly find a way to nab him. The Spurs always find a way.
Odds: 8/1
Golden State Warriors
Is it possible to commit career suicide by putting yourself in the best possible situation to win? Most definitely. Should Durant opt to team up with the rival Golden State Warriors, he would be roasted by pundits and fans alike over the flames of a thousand hot take stoves. “He took the easy way out!” they’d shout. “No competitive spirit!” We’d be made to suffer through the antiquated opinions of countless basketball legends from yesteryear who’d claim that “In my day, the sky was bluer and we were trying to beat these guys instead of joining them!” Not to mention the unbearable amount of social media memes that would ensue featuring Durant’s Golden State jersey with the ubiquitous Crying Jordan Face as a head.
But public backlash aside, how absolutely sublime of a sight would it be to see a Stephen Curry/Draymond Green pick-and-roll with Klay Thompson spotting up and Kevin Durant cutting towards the perimeter from the weakside? Would they even need to put a fifth player on the floor? Would opposing teams not even bother to show up to Oracle out of pure fear and intimidation alone? Would the 95-96 Chicago Bulls finally bow at their feet?
Before we get too carried away, we must understand that there are a lot of financial hoops the Dubs would have to jump through before even beginning to consider this possibility. Golden State would almost surely have to let both Harrison Barnes (who morphed into the physical embodiment of the Stone Temple Pilots song “Big Empty” in the NBA Finals) and Festus Ezeli (whose own Finals performance was so atrocious it probably caused Frank Costanza to disown Festivus out of its sheer resemblance to Ezeli’s first name) walk in free agency. They would also likely have to further shake up their nucleus by finding a new home for one of either Andre Iguodala or Andrew Bogut. Is Durant really worth all of that? Hmmmm…is water wet? Could switching to GEICO really save you 15 percent or more on car insurance?
For what it’s worth, the Warriors seem to be gaining confidence that they might be able to lure Durant away (and there are some indications that the interest may be mutual). Is this really what the NBA has come to? Are these our new superteam overlords? Is this video game roster about to become a figment of reality? Maybe not, but it would definitely be oodles of fun and oodles of mayhem all wrapped up in one. Let’s root for total anarchy. Let’s watch the basketball world burn. May chaos reign forever.
Odds: 6/1
Oklahoma City Thunder
In the words of a great man by the name of Tyga, “They always come back.” And under a collective bargaining agreement that incentivizes staying put, the same seems to ring true in the world of the NBA.
Like is always the case with any team that holds full Bird Rights on their own free agent, the Thunder can offer Durant more money and an extra year beyond what anyone else can. That monetary quirk would take the value of their max contract offer for Durant to five years and approximately $153 million.
So that seals the deal, right? Durant can be expected to sign on the dotted line at the stroke of midnight on July 1? Well, it’s a bit more complicated than that. The salary cap is projected to clock in around $94 million next season but could soar into nine figures come 2017-18. This would serve to discourage players like Durant from locking themselves into a long-term deal right away as they would have the potential to earn an even more lucrative dollar figure by hitting the open market again once the cap jumps further. As such, Durant is widely expected to take the 1+1 deal popularized by LeBron James (a.k.a the two-year deal with an opt-out clause after Year 1), which would afford Durant that larger slice of the pie, but also the ability to coincide his free agency with that of longtime Thunder running mate Russell Westbrook, whose deal expires in summer 2017. It’s the most sensible course of action for Durant, but one that partially negates OKC’s primary advantage in retaining him.
It’s also worth wondering how Durant envisions himself fitting into the OKC puzzle moving forward.
The Thunder just made a potentially franchise-altering deal on draft night by trading away homegrown veteran Serge Ibaka to the Orlando Magic for Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova, and the rights to Gonzaga big man Domantas Sabonis. While Ibaka was seemingly growing disgruntled and may have been on his way out the door in 2017, he was nevertheless an integral part of the Oklahoma City fabric.
Ibaka’s jumper served as a failsafe in the Thunder offense, which allowed Durant and Westbrook to constantly attack, while his rim protection and ability to corral guards and wings out onto the perimeter anchored the OKC defense for many years. With the Serge Protector now gone, the Thunder will have to reinvent themselves on both ends of the floor. Part of that may mean that Durant has to move over to the 4 as his primary position should he re-sign with the team. It shouldn’t be too much of a headache as the Thunder were +10.8 points per 48 minutes in the 665 minutes Durant logged at power forward (roughly 26 percent of his total playing time) last season, per Nylon Calculus. The four-time scoring champion also showcased much-improved interior defense in the Western Conference Finals series against the Warriors as his ability to help protect the basket from the 4 position breathed life into OKC’s best smallball units. And such a permanent positional shift for Durant would not be in vain as there’s little doubt the Thunder improved mightily by pulling the trigger on the trade.
Though a streaky shooter who has a hard time finishing at the rim, Oladipo is an excellent one-on-one defender who can function as a secondary creator. Meanwhile, Ilyasova should be a useful stretch big off the bench while Sabonis, a back-to-the-basket brute with enough of a feel for the game to be a contributor right away, lands in a great situation in which to develop. But how open might Durant actually be to this new era of Thunder basketball with all these fresh faces and moving parts?
In the end though, there’s just not enough reason for Durant to really consider leaving Oklahoma City. Durant has said before that he would love to spend his entire career in OKC, and we forget that this Thunder team won 7 of 13 games (and playoff games at that) against two historically great squads this year in the Spurs and the Warriors.
They might be the most athletic bunch in the Association, and it has to be tremendously difficult to walk away from that. Another year of continuity, another year for Billy Donovan (who was nothing short of brilliant as a rookie head coach in 2015-16) to develop and figure out the league, another year playing amidst the cheers and the adulation of one of the best home crowds in the game, another year alongside Russell “The Human Energy Drink” Westbrook. All those things matter. (Quick aside: it seems to me like Durant legitimately loves having Westbrook as a teammate. I remember those old jokes about how “Russell Westbrook should win Defensive Player of the Year because he’s the only guy who can hold Kevin Durant under 25 points per game.” But the duo has certainly come a long way. They always go above and beyond to speak highly of one another and do you remember how quickly and vehemently Durant defended Westbrook against Mark Cuban’s asinine criticism that Westbrook wasn’t a superstar? This might be the greatest bromance the NBA has ever seen).
Sure, greener pastures may beckon for Durant. But not all Spursgasms are created equal and all that glitters is not always Golden State. Durant’s free agency this July will be a spectacle, there’s no doubt about that. But when it’s all said and done, once all the fanfare and the wining and dining is complete, Durant is going to realize that the Thunder were his only true option, his rightful Oklahome all along.
Odds: 7/2
Image Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
